“MoneyPuck” An Advanced Statistical Look at the Chicago Blackhawks and the NHL

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When it comes to collective team Corsi, arguably the most telling stat is Corsi-For Percentage.  In an individual game, there is a maximumof 100% up for grabs, between 2 teams.  For example, let’s take a look at the Hawks’ most recent victory, over the San Jose Sharks.  During 5-on-5 play, when the score was close, the Blackhawks had a Corsi-For Percentage of 57.1%, while the Sharks had a 48.7% Corsi For Percentage.  

Now, having the higher CF% doesn’t always lead to wins, but it leads to the probability of more wins.

CF% is the statistic that predicted the collapse of the Minnesota Wild, after their hot start to the 2011-2012 season.

Let’s take a look at the CF% rankings compared with Point Percentage rankings, in the NHL, so far this season.

(All Corsi-For Percentages are scaled to 5-on-5, 60 minute per scale)

Team
Goals For Per Game
Goals Against Per Game
Power Play Percentage
Penalty Kill Percentage
Team Save Percentage
Faceoff Winning Percentage
Corsi For Percentage
Blackhawks3.36(1st in NHL)2.55(13th in NHL)21.4%(3rd in NHL)80.4%(24th in NHL).907(22nd in NHL)51.6%(7th in NHL)55.6%(2nd in NHL)
Avalanche3.03(6th in NHL)2.64(15th in NHL)20.9%(8th in NHL)81.0%(20th in NHL).919(4th in NHL)49.7%(17th in NHL)48.2%(24th in NHL)

What do we see?

Look at that!  The Hawks are number 1!  As long as they keep this up, and shore up their defensive zone breakdowns, this season will be a very successful one.

Wow!  the New Jersey Devils have vastly under-achieved, so far.  Will they be a team to look out for, in the Metropolitan Division?

The supposed panic, in Vancouver should be kept in check(sorry to disappoint you, Hawks fans) as long as the Canucks keep playing the way they have, they will be in the playoff picture, by season’s end.

It looks like the Colorado Avalanche have over-achieved, so far, but they certainly out-classed the Hawks, on the ice.

Holy over achieve, Phoenix Coyotes!  It certainly looks like luck and maybe the greatest collection shot selection of all-time, has the Coyotes near the top of the Pacific Division.  Look for them to fall back down to earth.

Are the Toronto Maple Leafs an early season fluke?  They very well could be.

The Buffalo Sabres are far and away the worst team in the NHL, during what looks to be a lengthy rebuilding process.

Now of course, these statistics must be compared to traditional statistics as well, as actually watching the game and seeing who plays the best and worst hockey, with your own eyes.  Advanced statistics are an alternative lens to view hockey, and all of sports through.

Still, there is no denying that there is an abundance of truth in numbers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Topics: Advanced Statistics, Chicago Blackhawks, Corsi, Hockey, Money Puck, NHL, Rankings

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