An Advanced Look: Chicago Blackhawks versus Anaheim Ducks

By Melissa Peterson | May 12, 2015

In preparations for the Western Conference Finals, we’re going to take a look at the Chicago Blackhawks and the Anaheim Ducks’s overall seasons, and the games they played versus one another to see just what the series may have in store for it.

If you’re not familiar with some of these abbreviations or terms, the entirety is listed at the bottom under “Resources” with brief explanations for your convenience. All charts can be clicked on to enlarge.

With regards to their specific games, Chicago has a 2 wins, 1 loss record against Anaheim.

Table compiled by Melissa Peterson

Overall, Chicago spends more time controlling the puck, as shown by their higher CF%. They have a pretty well matched shooting percentage and save percentage, as their averages for both are each within less than two percent of each-other. Chicago would be wise to focus on upping possession in this series.

With regards to goaltending, Frederik Anderson has started in two of the three games against Chicago, as has Corey Crawford (Scott Darling started for Chicago on 28 October; John Gibson for Anaheim). Andersen has a 89.9 sv% against Chicago, with Crawford boasting a 95.7% against ANA for this season.

Chicago’s numbers are better as the away team against Anaheim. For away games, CHI has a save percentage of 95.7 and a shooting percentage of 10.1. CF is 60.9%. For home games, CHI has a save percentage of 96.0, a shooting percentage of 0 and a CF% of 60.

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However, one must take into consideration what those numbers look like in comparison to Anaheim’s. For away games, ANA has a save percentage of 100 and a shooting percentage of 4 and CF is 40.0%. For home games, ANA has a save percentage of 89.9, a shooting percentage of 4.35 and a CF% of 39.105.

The problem with focusing solely on that four-game series is how small of a sample size it really is, as well as how widely varied these factors can be from game to game as you can see. So let’s take a look at overall season performance for these two team

All stats courtesy war-on-ice

ALL SCENARIOS

CHI has a CF% of 54.2%. One of the things that becomes an issue with looking at CF% when it’s not solely based on two teams but rather their performance in the league overall is that percentages are susceptible to overall event rates. What this means is that you have to take a look at the specific CF rate. Based on the 61.35 at 54.2% CF for CHI, we can determine that the CA rate is 51.85 events at 45.8% CA. For ANA, it is 56.62 CF at 51.1% CF, 54.18 Corsi-against events at 48.9% CA.

This brings us into looking at Goals For (GF). While ANA has more GF overall, (+8 over CHI), it becomes clear with their Goal Differential (G+/-) that they aren’t as successful at preventing goals against which makes a difference in overall wins. How does this play out taking into account shooting percentage and save percentages?

Chart courtesy war-on-ice | Values computed by Melissa Peterson

Well, one thing that’s important to look at is Shots on goal. It’s important to remember that SOG is what is used when computing shooting percentage, not Corsi For. Looking at the all scenario SOG rates above, we can estimate that CHI would take 34.15 SOG for, scoring 2.7 GF with a 7.9 sh%. ANA would take 29.87 SOG for, scoring 2.78 GF with a 9.3 sh%.

Taking into account save percentage (Sv%), Chicago would face 30.5 SOG against and lose 2.3 GA with a 92.5 Sv%. Anaheim would face 29.0 SOG against and lose 2.697 GA with a 90.7 Sv%. Chicago gains the edge when considering goal differential.

We can repeat this for each scenario, then, and see who might have the edge in each circumstance.

EVEN STRENGTH

Chart courtesy war-on-ice | Values computed by Melissa Peterson

Looking at the even-strength SOG rates above, we can estimate that CHI would take 26.83 SOG for, scoring 1.85 GF with a 6.9 sh%. ANA would take 23.17 SOG for, scoring 1.92 GF with a 8.3 sh%.

Taking into account save percentage (Sv%), Chicago would face 24.39 SOG against and lose 1.59 GA with a 93.5 Sv%. Anaheim would face 22.56 SOG against and lose 1.83 GA with a 91.9 Sv%. The goal differential gives the edge to CHI overall.

POWER PLAY

Chart courtesy war-on-ice | Values computed by Melissa Peterson

Looking at the Power-play SOG rates above, we can estimate that CHI would take 4.94 SOG for, scoring 0.56 GF with a 11.4 sh%. ANA would take 4.44 SOG for, scoring 0.46 GF with a 10.4 sh%.

Taking into account save percentage (Sv%), Chicago would face 0.75 SOG against and lose 0.09 GA with a 88.1 Sv%. Anaheim would face 0.74 SOG against and lose 0.074 GA with a 90.0 Sv%. Shooting percentage, here, gives the edge to CHI overall.

PENALTY KILL

Chart courtesy war-on-ice | Values computed by Melissa Peterson

Looking at the Penalty Kill SOG rates above, we can estimate that CHI would take 0.625 SOG for, scoring 0.04 GF with a 5.9 sh%. ANA would take 1.085 SOG for, scoring 0.07 GF with a 6.8 sh%.

Taking into account save percentage (Sv%), Chicago would face 4.0625 SOG against and lose 0.43 GA with a 89.3 Sv%. Anaheim would face 4.146 SOG against and lose 0.597 GA with a 85.6 Sv%. Save percentage, here, gives the edge to Chicago overall.

Resources

Corsi: For those that are unsure of what Corsi even is, it is measured as Corsi For and Corsi Against (CA). Corsi is the total number of on-ice shot attempts (on goal, missed, or blocked) taken during a game/series/season. Corsi For is the amount of the total Corsi taken by one team or player on said team. Corsi Against is the amount of the total Corsi taken against one team or player on said team.
CA% : Corsi Against Percentage (of total) What this means is they’ve totaled up the Corsi Events that took place for both teams, and divided the individual team’s total by that number and multiplied it by 100 to get a percentage.
CP60 : Corsi Per 60. What this means is they’ve totaled up the Corsi events that took place for both teams and divided it by 60 to get an average Corsi Events per 60 minutes.
G+/- : Goal Differential. The total number of Goals For (GF) minus the total number of Goals Against (GA). If it is a positive number, the team is outscoring their opponents.
FO%: The percentage of Face-offs won.
OFOn%: On-Ice Unblocked Shot Attempts on Goal
OSh%: On-Ice Shooting percentage
OSv%: On-Ice Save percentage
PDO: On-Ice Save percentage + On-Ice Shooting percentage
ZSO%: The amount of Offensive Zone starts. The larger the number, the more often a team starts (with a Face-off) in their Offensive Zone

Sources

Stats and charts courtesy of war-on-ice.com

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