An Advanced Look: Chicago Blackhawks versus Tampa Bay Lightning

In preparations for the Stanley Cup Finals, we’re going to take a look at the Chicago Blackhawks and the Tampa Bay Lightning’s overall seasons, and the games they played versus one another to see just what the series may have in store for it.

If you’re not familiar with some of these abbreviations or terms, the entirety is listed at the bottom under “Resources” with brief explanations for your convenience. All charts can be clicked on to enlarge.

With regards to their specific games, Chicago has a 1 win, 1 loss record against Tampa Bay.

Table compiled by Melissa Peterson

Overall, Chicago spends more time controlling the puck, as shown by their higher CF%. However, Tampa Bay has a higher shooting percentage and save percentage than Chicago. Chicago would be wise to focus on upping possession in this series.

With regards to goaltending, Ben Bishop has started in both games against Chicago; Corey Crawford one (Scott Darling started for Chicago on 27 February 2015). Crawford has a 92.6% against TB for this season. Chicago’s numbers are better as the home team against Tampa Bay.

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The problem with focusing solely on that four-game series is how small of a sample size it really is, as well as how widely varied these factors can be from game to game as you can see. So let’s take a look at overall season performance for these two team

All stats courtesy war-on-ice

ALL SCENARIOS

CHI has a CF% of 54.2%. One of the things that becomes an issue with looking at CF% when it’s not solely based on two teams but rather their performance in the league overall is that percentages are susceptible to overall event rates. What this means is that you have to take a look at the specific CF rate. Based on the 61.35 at 54.2% CF for CHI, we can determine that the CA rate is 51.85 events at 45.8% CA. For ANA, it is 56.62 CF at 51.1% CF, 54.18 Corsi-against events at 48.9% CA.

This brings us into looking at Goals For (GF). While TB has more GF overall, (+39 over CHI), it becomes clear with their Goals Against (+20 over CHI) that they aren’t as successful at preventing goals against which makes a difference in overall wins. Although their goal differential is overall higher than CHI’s, it could be something that is exploitable over a game or short series like the SCF.

Chart courtesy war-on-ice | Values computed by Melissa Peterson

Well, one thing that’s important to look at is Shots on goal. It’s important to remember that SOG is what is used when computing shooting percentage, not Corsi For. Looking at the all scenario SOG rates above, we can estimate that CHI would take 34.15 SOG for, scoring 2.7 GF with a 7.9 sh%. TB would take 29.87 SOG for, scoring 3.2 GF with a 10.7 sh%.

Taking into account save percentage (Sv%), Chicago would face 30.5 SOG against and lose 2.3 GA with a 92.5 Sv%. Tampa Bay would face 28.05 SOG against and lose 2.52 GA with a 91.0 Sv%. Tampa Bay gains the edge when considering goal differential.

We can repeat this for each scenario, then, and see who might have the edge in each circumstance.

EVEN STRENGTH

Chart courtesy war-on-ice | Values computed by Melissa Peterson

Looking at the even-strength SOG rates above, we can estimate that CHI would take 26.83 SOG for, scoring 1.85 GF with a 6.9 sh%. TBL would take 24.14 SOG for, scoring 2.2 GF with a 9.1 sh%.

Taking into account save percentage (Sv%), Chicago would face 24.39 SOG against and lose 1.59 GA with a 93.5 Sv%. Tampa Bay would face 20.73 SOG against and lose 1.7 GA with a 91.9 Sv%. The goal differential gives the edge to TB overall.

POWER PLAY

Chart courtesy war-on-ice | Values computed by Melissa Peterson

Looking at the Power-play SOG rates above, we can estimate that CHI would take 4.94 SOG for, scoring 0.56 GF with a 11.4 sh%. TBL would take 3.46 SOG for, scoring 0.60 GF with a 17.3 sh%.

Taking into account save percentage (Sv%), Chicago would face 0.75 SOG against and lose 0.09 GA with a 88.1 Sv%. Tampa Bay would face 0.7 SOG against and lose 0.075 GA with a 89.3 Sv%. Shooting percentage, here, gives the edge to TBL overall.

PENALTY KILL

Chart courtesy war-on-ice | Values computed by Melissa Peterson

Looking at the Penalty Kill SOG rates above, we can estimate that CHI would take 0.625 SOG for, scoring 0.04 GF with a 5.9 sh%. TB would take 0.56 SOG for, scoring 0.06 GF with a 10.9 sh%.

Taking into account save percentage (Sv%), Chicago would face 4.0625 SOG against and lose 0.43 GA with a 89.3 Sv%. Tampa Bay would face 4.88 SOG against and lose 0.517 GA with a 89.4 Sv%. Save percentage and shot suppression, here, gives the edge to Chicago overall.

Games start Wednesday June 3rd at 7pm central at Amelie Arena in Tampa Bay.

Resources

Corsi: For those that are unsure of what Corsi even is, it is measured as Corsi For and Corsi Against (CA). Corsi is the total number of on-ice shot attempts (on goal, missed, or blocked) taken during a game/series/season. Corsi For is the amount of the total Corsi taken by one team or player on said team. Corsi Against is the amount of the total Corsi taken against one team or player on said team.
CA% : Corsi Against Percentage (of total) What this means is they’ve totaled up the Corsi Events that took place for both teams, and divided the individual team’s total by that number and multiplied it by 100 to get a percentage.
CP60 : Corsi Per 60. What this means is they’ve totaled up the Corsi events that took place for both teams and divided it by 60 to get an average Corsi Events per 60 minutes.
G+/- : Goal Differential. The total number of Goals For (GF) minus the total number of Goals Against (GA). If it is a positive number, the team is outscoring their opponents.
FO%: The percentage of Face-offs won.
OFOn%: On-Ice Unblocked Shot Attempts on Goal
OSh%: On-Ice Shooting percentage
OSv%: On-Ice Save percentage
PDO: On-Ice Save percentage + On-Ice Shooting percentage
ZSO%: The amount of Offensive Zone starts. The larger the number, the more often a team starts (with a Face-off) in their Offensive Zone

Sources

Stats and charts courtesy of war-on-ice.com

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