For 2018-19 Chicago Blackhawks, Change Could Mean Variety Of Options

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WINNIPEG, MANITOBA – APRIL 7: Jordan Oesterle /

Chicago Blackhawks president John McDonough announced that both Stan Bowman and Joel Quenneville will return next season. So there are no changes with top management, but change is gonna come.

John McDonough tells the media that Stan Bowman and Joel Quenneville will remain in their current positions. #Blackhawks
— Eric Lear (@BHTVeric) April 5, 2018

It was a trying season for all involved with the Chicago Blackhawks. Some called it the perfect storm. Let’s recap the gory details one more time for those keeping score at home.

Marian Hossa sat out the season due to a severe skin ailment, and the ‘Hawks lost one of their most influential forwards.

Scott Darling was traded to Carolina with no apparent successor to his backup role.

Artemi Panarin was traded to Columbus along with his top-10 scoring ability.

Brandon Saad was re-acquired in the trade for Panarin but failed to rekindle any chemistry with Jonathan Toews. Saad’s inability to pass or shoot tanked the top line.

Richard Panik regressed after a solid 2016-17 season and also tanked the top line. He was traded to Arizona for Anthony Duclair, who demonstrated great speed but no scoring touch.

Jonathan Toews did not resurrect his elite play while saddled with Saad and Panik.

Marcus Kruger as the top shutdown center was traded and along with the loss of Hossa, Toews was the lone two-way forward. The hard minutes wore down Toews.

The loss of Niklas Hjalmarsson was a serious blow to the defense. His elite shot blocking was never replaced.

Newly acquired Connor Murphy continued to play like a third-pairing defenseman as he was in Arizona. He was a frequent healthy scratch.

“Then I go to my brother … And I say brother help me please”

Bowman has signed all six of his current defensemen for next season. I wrote previously that a defensive corps of Keith, Seabrook, Rutta, Murphy, Erik Gustafsson, Jordan Oesterle and seventh man Forsling is not going to be significantly better next season than what we saw this season.

They’ll need help from outside. The top unrestricted free agent defensemen worth looking at are John Carlson, Calvin de Haan, Thomas Hickey and John Moore. There are some solid restricted free agents, but signing them involves losing assets, and offer sheets create ill will between general managers.

Carlson is going to command upwards of $8 million, while the other three will be in the $3.5 -$5.5 million range. I still firmly believe that Washington will re-sign Carlson. The New York Islanders will be in a bind to sign a bunch of their own free agents, so either de Haan or Hickey could become attainable. Moore of the New Jersey Devils is also a dependable defender and is a Winnetka, Ill., native.

Signing Carlson would jar the salary cap structure for the ‘Hawks, while signing any of the other three would be more budget friendly.

Statistically, let’s compare the three defenders, courtesy of Corsica.com:

John Carlson

#74 | D | 28

Nationality: USA

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 215

Shoots: R

Summary

0.37 Goals per 60

1.07 Primary Points per 60

0.68 Game Score per Game

0.05 Star Rating per Game

-1.6%

Relative Corsi

-0.12

xG Differential per 60

+4

Penalty Differential

49.8%

Zone Start Ratio

———————————————————–

Calvin de Haan

#44 | D | 27

Nationality: CAN

Height: 6′ 1″

Weight: 197

Shoots: L

Summary

0.17 Goals per 60

0.60 Primary Points per 60

0.39 Game Score per Game

0.01 Star Rating per Game

+0.3%

Relative Corsi

+0.25

xG Differential per 60

-9

Penalty Differential

47.2%

Zone Start Ratio

———————————————————-

Thomas Hickey

#14 | D | 29

Nationality: CAN

Height: 6′ 0″

Weight: 189

Shoots: L

Summary

0.20 Goals per 60

0.51 Primary Points per 60

0.29 Game Score per Game

0.01 Star Rating per Game

+0.3%

Relative Corsi

-0.20

xG Differential per 60

+9

Penalty Differential

49.0%

Zone Start Ratio

—————————————————————

John Moore

#2 | D | 27

Nationality: USA

Height: 6′ 2″

Weight: 210

Shoots: L

Summary

0.47 Goals per 60

0.66 Primary Points per 60

0.28 Game Score per Game

0.02 Star Rating per Game

-1.0%

Relative Corsi

-0.28

xG Differential per 60

-27

Penalty Differential

51.5%

Zone Start Ratio

The notable statistics are that de Haan has the lowest ratio of zone starts, yet manages to be on the positive side of Corsi-for. He also sports the best differential in expected goals per 60 minutes. If the ‘Hawks want to clear their zone, limit scoring chances, get the puck into the offensive zone and create scoring chances, then de Haan is their man.

“But he winds up knockin’ me … Back down on my knees, oh”

The team’s offensive woes have been discussed all season long. Some subscribe to the theory that the ‘Hawks need to add another top-six scoring forward.

The list of unrestricted free-agent forwards contains a lot of aging forwards, something the ‘Hawks need to avoid at all costs. The younger forwards who stand out are John Tavares, Evander Kane and James van Riemsdyk. These three players will command salaries ranging from $6-$10 million.

The problem with adding any of these players is that their salary cap hits will limit what the ‘Hawks can do to bolster the lagging defense. In 2019, the contracts of David Kampf, Nick Schmaltz, Dylan Sikura, Victor Ejdsell, Blake Hillman, Oesterle, Rutta and Forsling will expire. In 2020, DeBrincat’s entry-level contract will expire. So the ‘Hawks will need to be conservative with signing older players to long term contracts.

Tavares will be looking for Toews/Kane type of money, and that will price him out of the Blackhawks’ range. Both Evander Kane and van Riemsdyk finished out the season just inside of the top-100 scoring leaders. So, look for them to command offers in the $6.5-7.5 million range. Either could fill the second-line left wing spot. Evander Kane would bring some much needed grit to the top six.

One Goal — or just one goalie to back up Crawford

This was the one season where Bowman did not find a diamond in the rough to be Crawford’s backup. There was no Ray Emery, Antti Raanta or Darling this time around. And that lack of goalie depth absolutely killed the ‘Hawks in getting wins and in developing the younger roster. Yes, the play in front of every goalie was an adventure, but confidence in your goalie goes a long way too.

So, what does Bowman do for next season? Prospect Ivan Nalimov is tied up in his KHL contract, so he won’t be arriving next season. My best pick is Michael Hutchinson in the Winnipeg Jets organization.

He is currently buried in the AHL with both Connor Hellebuyck and Steve Mason having good years in the NHL. Hutchinson has given the ‘Hawks a difficult time in the past, and that should be in the organization’s memory. Hutchinson has posted a 2.16 goals-against average and .936 save percentage with the Manitoba Moose. He’s also an unrestricted free agent. Hello.

CHICAGO, IL – MARCH 18: Jonathan Toews /

“There have been times that I thought I couldn’t last for long … But now I think I’m able to carry on”

The Blackhawks’ future is not as bleak as many would like to forecast. The salary cap for next season could be anywhere between $78-82 million. I’m going to go with $80 million in the middle for the sake of discussion.

If you like to have fun with numbers, take a look at how a reshaped roster could look next year. This spreadsheet also includes the following season with some estimates at future contracts.

This illustrates that the moves would not blow the ‘Hawks out of the water the following year. This also assumes Bowman moves Hossa’s contract to a team in need of reaching the salary cap floor. Take a look:

PLAYER

AGE

POS

2018-2019

2019-2020

Line 1 Toews

$ 10,500,000.00

DeBrincat

$ 778,333.00

P. Kane

$ 10,500,000.00

Line 2 Schmaltz

$ 925,000.00

$ 3,500,000.00

van Riemsdyk

E. Kane

$ 6,750,000.00

Sikura

$ 925,000.00

$ 2,800,000.00

Line 3 Anisimov

$ 4,550,000.00

Saad

$ 6,000,000.00

Kampf

$ 925,000.00

$ 1,387,500.00

Line 4 Ejdsell

$ 833,750.00

$ 1,250,625.00

Hinostroza

$ 1,076,250.00

$ 925,000.00 ?

Martinsen

$ 825,000.00

$ 925,000.00 ?

Keith

$ 5,538,461.00

Rutta

$ 2,300,000.00

Jokiharju

$ 925,000.00 ?

deHaan

$ 4,500,000.00

Murphy

$ 3,850,000.00

Gustafsson

$ 1,200,000.00

Seabrook

$ 6,875,000.00

Crawford

$ 6,000,000.00

Hutchinson

$ 1,250,000.00

RSV

Oesterle

$ 650,000.00

$ 925,000.00 ?

RSV

Highmore

$ 775,833.00

$ 925,000.00 ?

RSV

$ 925,000.00 ?

Subtotal

$ 77,527,627.00

$ 81,854,919.00

Bonuses

$ 1,907,500.00

TOTAL

$ 79,435,127.00

$ 81,854,919.00

SALARY CAP

$ 80,000,000.00

$ 84,000,000.00 ?

Personally, I’d like to see Bowman acquire two top-four defenders instead of another top-six forward. I’m not sold on Rutta as their No. 2 defender with Keith. At the age of 27, he’s not going to develop any further. He impressed early but then faded as the season wore on.

Perhaps they could compete with him in that slot until Henri Jokiharju arrives. The reports are that Jokiharju might have a shot at cracking the lineup this fall. But acquiring that second top-four guy would solve that problem, too.

More from Analysis

Either way they go, you can see that with the new salary cap, Bowman can improve this team. And of course there are numerous trade options where Bowman could really shake up the roster. But the resounding theme so far is that of “continuity,” so Bowman may not be ready to go full throttle with major shake-ups.

The Blackhawks’ free agents this year are Duclair, Tomas Jurco, Vinnie Hinostroza, John Hayden and Andreas Martinsen. Out of this group, I only feel Hinostroza and Martinsen should definitely be re-signed.

We’ve all seen how Hinostroza has developed into a legitimate NHL’er this season. And Martinsen has been noticeable every single shift. No one else is willing to play the physical game as well as he has.

Foley & Edzo commenting on Martinsen. He certainly makes his presence known every single shift. Yup.
— SteveY (@SteveYatsushiro) March 30, 2018

Hayden could still be a factor as one of those sandpaper guys, but should only be signed to a two-way deal. Duclair and Jurco are perimeter players and the ‘Hawks have enough of those already.

“It’s been a long, a long time coming … But I know a change is gonna come, oh yes it will”

So the resurgence of the Blackhawks can start over this summer with the right moves. As I’ve stated before, they’re not that far from contending once again. So with the confidence that there will be salary cap room, and some quality players available via free agency, we can look forward to the draft and free agent season.

Let’s recap one more time in condensed style of some possible combinations.

DeBrincat-Toews-P Kane

E Kane-Schmaltz-Sikura

Saad-Anisimov-Kampf

Hinostroza-Ejdsell-Martinsen

Keith-Rutta/Jokiharju

de Haan-Murphy

Gustafsson-Seabrook

Crawford

Hutchinson

DeBrincat-Toews-Kane

Saad-Schmaltz-Sikura

Hinostroza-Anisimov-Kampf

Hayden-Ejdsell-Martinsen

Keith-Carlson (Murphy is moved in a trade and Jokiharju develops all season in Rockford)

de Haan-Rutta

Gustafsson-Seabrook

Crawford

Hutchinson

People, get ready

So, I’ve provided these projections to illustrate that there are some pretty good options in the free agent pool to significantly upgrade the roster. I added Carlson in one scenario because it demonstrates that even adding a high end salary is feasible. And one more year under the belts of DeBrincat, Schmaltz, Sikura and Gustafsson should put them on a trajectory to reach their potentials.

Next: Sharp Leaves Long-Lasting Legacy With Blackhawks

I repeat, a healthy increase in the salary cap to add free agents and continued progress from the youngsters can put your Blackhawks back into playoff contention next season. Buckle up and stay positive, Blackhawks fans. It’s going to be an interesting summer.

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