Chicago Blackhawks Need Kids to Grow Up Quickly

The Evolution of the Roster

To better understand how the first Stanley Cup championship team of 2010 has evolved over the years, I made a graph of core players spread out over age groups. I created three groups based on age and divided into under 25, between 25 and 29 and finally 30 or older.

Within each age group, I classified players as Core or Support players. Here’s how it broke down:

Year                  <25                   25 -29              30+

2010             C-6, S-6            C-3, S-5        C-2, S-4

2013             C-2, S-7            C-4, S-5        C-3, S-5

2015             C-1, S-6            C-5, S-4        C-5, S-4

2018             C-0, S-9            C-1, S-6        C-6, S-2

The trends are pretty clear. The Core has steadily moved into the 30-and-over group while no clear-cut Core players have emerged from the under-25 group. The accepted belief is that hockey players peak at age 29. Let’s take a look at the young group of players and see if they are on a good trajectory toward a high peak.

Who’s ready for prime time?

Here’s the current under-25 group:

Player                        Pos     Age    Exp      Summary          Salary                   Draft
Henri Jokiharju          D        19       R       0 G, 9 A, 9 P     $925,000      2017 CHI 1st (29)
Alexandre Fortin     LW       21       R       2 G, 2 A, 4 P     $710,000
Alex Debrincat         LW       21       1       9 G, 7 A, 16 P  $792,500     2016 CHI 2nd (39)
Nick Schmaltz           C         22       2       2 G, 6 A, 8 P     $925,000     2014 CHI 1st (20)
Gustav Forsling        D         22       2       0 G, 1 A, 1 P     $925,000     2014 VAN 5th (126)
Dominik Kahun         C         23       R       1 G, 7 A, 8 P     $925,000
John Hayden            RW      23       2        1 G, 0 A, 1 P     $700,000     2013 CHI 3rd (74)
David Kampf              C        24       1         2 G, 2 A, 4 P    $925,000
Luke Johnson             C        24       R         0 G, 1 A, 1 P    $742,500     2013 CHI 5th (134)

Nick Schmaltz has been an enigma so far. He has shown flashes of brilliance, yet at times looks like he just wants to drift to the perimeter. Many have hailed him as the team’s future top-line center. To get there, he needs to get over his allergy to shooting the puck.

At the same time, fans need to remember that he is still 22 years old.  Many were ready to give up on 22 year old Teuvo Teravainen, who similarly got pushed off the puck and preferred passing to shooting. He’s now looking like the player he was expected to be, but on the Carolina Hurricanes.

Out of this group, we could debate whether Alex DeBrincat should be included as a core player. I didn’t, since his game is still developing. While he is without a doubt an offensive threat, he remains a liability when it comes to committing turnovers. For the sake of argument, even if we add him as a core player, the current “under-25” group still sits at C-1, S-7.

Henri Jokiharju could be given core consideration as well. But even new head coach Jeremy Colliton has seen some holes in this rookie’s game, and has dropped him down from the first defensive pairing with Duncan Keith.

The rest of the group shows promise, but will need proper mentoring.

The Middle

Here’s the 25-29 group:

Player                        Pos    Age   Exp      Summary          Salary                   Draft

Brandon Saad          LW     26      7      5 G, 4 A, 9 P     $6,750,000     2011 CHI 2nd (43)
Erik Gustafsson        D       26      2      1 G, 6 A, 7 P     $1,000,000     2012 EDM 4th (93)
Brandon Davidson   D       27      4      0 G, 1 A, 1 P           N/A              2010 EDM 6th (162)
Jan Rutta                    D       28      1      1 G, 4 A, 5 P      $2,250,000
Andreas Martinsen LW    28      3       0 G, 1 A, 1 P         $650,000
Brandon Manning    D      28      6       1 G, 1 A, 2 P      $2,500,000
Marcus Kruger          C       28      8       2 G, 0 A, 2 P     $2,070,000     2009 CHI 5th (149)

Even in the “25-29” group, there is only one core player, Brandon Saad.  He has finally started playing up to his capabilities to re-establish his seat as a core player. This is the group that should have players coming into their own and owning the play, since players typically peak at age 29. At age 26, Erik Gustafsson is starting to emerge as a solid contributor, however he’s still far from being considered a core player with his liabilities in the defensive zone.

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The rest of the group is a collection of players assembled by Stan Bowman, and they’re getting close to peak age without peaking.

Houston, we have a problem

The original core players all sit in the 30-and-above group, along with support players Cam Ward and Chris Kunitz. If we accept the theory that players enter their decline period in this age group, this older core just can’t carry the load as they’ve done in the past.

This is the problem.

As I mentioned earlier, the core players are consuming the majority of the team’s salary cap, yet they aren’t the same quality core players they were in the cup-winning years. The salary cap forces the team to continue to rely on cheaper support players, and none have boldly emerged or stayed long enough from the younger age groups to replenish the aging core.

A natural reaction is to rue over what a Chicago Blackhawks roster could look like today if some knee-jerk trades had never happened. Also, there’s always room for discussion of possible trades coming in the future.

For fun, consider this “what if” roster:

Offense

1. Artemi Panarin – Artem Anisimov – Patrick Kane
2. Alex DeBrincat – Jonathan Toews – Teuvo Teravainen
3. Nick Schmaltz – Phillip Danault – Vinnie Hinostroza
4. John Hayden – David Kampf – Ryan Hartman

Defensive

1. Duncan Keith – Stephen Johns
2. Niklas Hjalmarsson – Henri Jokiharju
3. Michal Kempny – Brent Seabrook

Goaltenders

1. Corey Crawford
2. Scott Darling

OK, enough of that! Back to reality.

Back to the future

All in all, what the Chicago Blackhawks have is a wide gap of older former Stanley Cup champions in decline, with a non-stellar 25-29 group, and a bunch of under-25’ers who show promise.  Former coach Joel Quenneville is no longer the scape goat to blame for the whole under-29 group’s effectiveness or lack thereof.

This brings us to new coach Jeremy Colliton.

It is now upon him to round this lop-sided roster into a competitive group. After his first 6 games as head coach, the ‘Hawks have posted a 2-2-2 record (this not including the Washington Capitals game on Wed. 21st). The first 2 games against the Carolina Hurricanes and Philadelphia Flyers were forgettable losses.

Da Windy City

In the last 4 games against Carolina, the St Louis Blues, Los Angeles Kings and Minnesota Wild, the team has started to show a different look with the defensemen activating in the offensive zone to create more possession time.

New lines and defensive pairings are starting to take hold, but inconsistencies still exist. Even with the latest effort in a victory against Minnesota, the ‘Hawks surrendered multiple prime scoring chances against Corey Crawford. The defensive breakdowns and offensive turnovers still haunt this team.

Colliton’s keys

The key is for Colliton to work with the under-25 group to nurture their development, and to get more out of the 25-to-29 group. His past successful work with young talent makes him an intriguing choice to get the most out of these two groups.

Since taking over, Brandon Saad is playing the style of hockey we would expect to see. His elevation to the top line with Toews and Kane has made the new configuration a potent one. With his elevated play, the first line are now creating scoring chances with greater frequency.

He has correctly separated Nick Schmaltz from Patrick Kane, as Schmaltz was passing to Kane too often. In the Minnesota game, Schmaltz was taking more shots as a winger on the 2nd line. His aggressive play was a huge step in the right direction. Teamed with a pure shooter in Alex DeBrincat and set up man Anisimov, the second line becomes a threat as well.

Dropping Dominik Kahun to the 3rd line with Alexandre Fortin and David Kampf was also the correct move. This trio of young players will have the opportunity to utilize and develop their speed and skill without going up against a higher quality of competition. I saw some encouraging play from them and want to see more.

Colliton will get a break from the fans and the media as he starts to mold this team into his version of the Chicago Blackhawks. He won’t receive any mercy in the next 9 days from the schedule, though.

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He will be facing the acid test, as the schedule pits the team against Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals, cup contending Tampa Bay Lightning, the up and coming Florida Panthers, cup contending Vegas Golden Knights and the powerful Winnipeg Jets.

It’s definitely a trial by fire. We’ll see what type of new fire the Chicago Blackhawks have in their belly and if the kids are getting closer to prime time in the coming days.