Chicago Blackhawks Coach Colliton Speaks the Truth

So what words do the pictures say?

From these charts, we are seeing a team that is playing soft.  Some may say the team suffers from bad puck luck.  But puck luck can only account for so much.  Good teams create their own luck by driving the play.  If we look at a chart of the individual players’ shots for and against, we can see who is driving the play and who is chasing the play.

Courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath)

Here we see that the bottom-six forwards are the ones who were driving the play, while the new line of Alex DeBrincat–Dylan Strome–Patrick Kane struggled to control the play.  This is an upside-down world where the forwards with fewer minutes played are the more effective players. The third line was very noticeable with their straight ahead play and intensity.  The fourth line also tilted the ice the right way, although Artem Anisimov‘s goal came when he was reunited with Kane and DeBrincat.  The effectiveness of the bottom-six forwards is further illustrated by their actual scoring output in the next chart.

This is a nice visual of the plus/minus statistic. Surely we would like to see more blue dots from the top-six forwards.  The reason for the lopsided results is a lack of penetration by the top-six forwards, and especially from the Strome line.  Coming into the game, the ‘Hawks were trending overall as a team with little penetration, and they were consistent against the Jets.

The truth shall set you free, or really hurt your feelings

The truth is that the ‘Hawks are playing soft offensively.  For all the fast pace, they have nothing to show for it.  As Shakespeare wrote, “the sound and fury signifying nothing”.  If the ‘Hawks want to start ramping up their game, they need to ramp up their will to win.  The famous “compete level” needs to start from the opening puck drop.  It’s entertaining to watch their “Harlem Globetrotters” cycling of the puck, but it’s more entertaining to see pucks enter the net.  It’s the reverse in their own end.  Watching them chase the play in their own zone is purely aggravating.

The disturbing statistic is that they have given up the most goals of any NHL team in the first period.  And that brings us once again to the topic of the defense.

Defensive reaction

It’s usually a bad trait to get overly defensive about situations, but in the ‘Hawks case, they need to find their defense.  Game after game they’ve had defensive breakdowns that lead to goals.  The offense can’t get going if the defense can’t get the puck out of the defensive zone.  If Jeremy Colliton is serious about telling the team the truth, the players are going to hear a lot about this sore topic.

Basic fundamentals on defense are not being applied in their play, from both the forwards and defensemen.  There has been a lot of overpursuit, double/triple coverage, and puck watching.  These are the types of mistakes that players learn from as peewees and in juniors.  This shouldn’t be a widespread problem at the NHL level.  But here come the ‘Hawks.

While Stan Bowman has been concentrating on offensive tweaks by adding Strome and Brendan Perlini, he’s been neglecting the talent level on the defense.  We looked at this sore topic at the end of last season.  In a great analysis of the current situation, The Athletic’s Cory Sznajder breaks down the argument of player talent versus coaching system to account for the team’s woeful defense.  As Jeremy Colliton leans more heavily on his veteran players, the worse this situation will become as the season progresses, unless the younger players start stepping up.

But, can the role players step up their play enough based upon their inherent skill sets?  It will take time for Colliton’s systems to push out the bad habits of the past.  The quick fix would be to reshape the roster, but again, at what cost?  Stan Bowman has backed himself into a corner with his poorly constructed roster and self-inflicted salary cap issues.  What he does next will indicate if he’s giving up on this season and rebuilding for the future.

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Another acid test comes tonight against the high-flying Nashville Predators.  They bring a first place record of 17-8-1 into the game tonight, but a two-game losing streak as well.  The ‘Hawks will have their hands full with a roster that can create chaos for the Chicago Blackhawks to defend against.  Colliton is no longer looking for baby steps from his players, and tonight would be a good time for them to make one giant leap for Hawks-kind.