The Chicago Blackhawks are at the point of no return

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The Chicago Blackhawks suffered through a recent eight-game losing streak. They have plunged to the bottom of the Central Division and 2nd from last in the NHL. They have reached the point of no return.

We’ve examined the Chicago Blackhawks’ dramatic fall from grace this season in recent articles. Our Sam Boland discussed the possible options for the ‘Hawks in his solid article. Sam presents two valid options, Win Now or Play the Long Game. I present Option Three: Accept Failure and Immediately Build for the Future. A very smart radio host likes to say, “We work with the facts and live with the truth.” So let’s work with the facts.

It’s a hard knock life.

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The NHL Central Division is a tough place to live and play. The Chicago Blackhawks just don’t have the roster to compete in their division this season. In a long series of unfortunate events, general manager Stan Bowman played not to lose and lost the structure of a sustained championship roster. He did successfully manage his way through the salary cap maze to win three Stanley Cup championships.

But along the way, he forgot that his prized core was not composed of immortals. I’ve detailed in my recent article on how the age gap between the core and young supporting players has widened over the years. It was a wild gamble on Bowman’s part to depend on all his young support players to blossom into stars this season. Obviously, he didn’t win that bet. So now he’s backed the team into a corner it can’t get out of.

The solution to today’s situation is not an easy one, but a necessary one. Since the ‘Hawks aren’t going to be a playoff team this year and the core players will continue to slip down the age slide in the coming years, they need to start launching some star players to begin the dreaded rebuild. The young talent they have won’t mature quickly enough to overcome the sharp decline of the core players. This shouldn’t have come this soon, but here we are.

CHICAGO, IL – DECEMBER 14: Goalie Corey Crawford #50 of the Chicago Blackhawks gets in position to stop the puck in the second period against the Winnipeg Jets at the United Center on December 14, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Bill Smith/NHLI via Getty Images) /

Everybody wants to rule the world.

So how does Bowman go about rebuilding this team? He might not even stick around long enough to implement a plan. But if we play armchair general manager, here are the cold facts about the core that we have to deal with.

The return of Corey Crawford has not been the cure for everything that ails this team. He is still a great goalie, but cannot single-handedly save this team. His contract of $6,000,000 per year through 2020 is a great value for a top-flight goalie.
Duncan Keith is no longer a number one defenseman. He is still a solid defender, and his contract ($5,538,462 per year through 2023) is a great value.
Brent Seabrook‘s contract of $6,875,000 per year through 2024 is a terrible value for a former all-star who has declined to a number five defenseman. He is virtually untradeable unless the team retains some salary or includes a desirable prospect.
Artem Anisimov ($4,550,000 per year through 2021) might not even be a good fit in Jeremy Colliton’s style of hockey.
Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are the cornerstones of the organization and moving them in trade would be a disastrous public relations move. They both have salary cap hits of $10,500,000 through 2023, which continue to place great constraints on the team’s ability to sign high-quality players. Both are playing at a high level and continue to lead the team.
Brandon Saad, age 26, at $6,000,000 through 2021 is a decent value, as long as he continues to play at his rediscovered level.

So here’s the armchair GM plan for points 1-6 above:

scarred for life because his defense leaves him out to dry https://t.co/LjVIVVEJ13
— Blackhawk Up (@Blackhawk_Up) November 28, 2018

Trade Corey Crawford while his value is high and while it doesn’t matter who tends the net for the ‘Hawks during a rebuild. Furthermore, the Detroit Redwings template that Scotty Bowman was part of, is that a team can succeed with an average goalie as long as it plays solid defense and possesses the puck. A Crawford trade could net the ‘Hawks a solid young defensive talent. Their future star defensemen, Adam Boqvist and Nicolas Beaudin, are very young, not very big, and not quite ready for the NHL. But the ‘Hawks do have young goalies ripening in Rockford and an anxious immigrant in Ivan Nalimov waiting to come to the NHL. They are close to being NHL-ready and are all cost-effective options in net. Crawford’s No Movement Clause-NMC might not be a roadblock anymore.

Trade Duncan Keith to a contending team that needs that one additional defender who can play in the top-four. Trading Keith to a contender would give him another chance at a Cup this season, end his obvious frustration, provide some salary cap relief, and get the ‘Hawks another solid young talent to build with. Keith just might be at the point where he’s willing to waive his NMC.

You’re stuck with Seabrook because the necessary sweetener to pull off a trade for him would probably be a top prospect. If you’re rebuilding, parting with top prospects is not part of the plan. Trading him with salary retention would be preferable. This is another Bowman NMC that makes things even more difficult. The suddenly surging Edmonton Oilers could be a trade partner to get Seabrook to waive his NMC to get closer to home. A trade would spare you of having to resort to an embarrassing waiving for unconditional release. But until then, you have your expensive locker room leader playing on the third defensive pair.

Trade Anisimov to a contending team who needs a big center for depth. Anisimov is still a useful big center. If you can’t pull off a deal for him, it doesn’t kill you to keep him. But that salary is too high for a third or fourth line center.

Not going to touch these two, unless you’re ready to alienate most of your fan base. They also have the big NMC’s. Trading either player would have to be on the magnitude of a Shea Weber for P.K. Subban deal. And remember, even Wayne Gretzky was traded. But as a manager of the business, you have to think of both the on ice and off the ice products. Well, do you feel lucky?

Hold onto Saad, as good power forwards are hard to come by. And he is playing lately like the player they thought he can be.

In addition to these moves, of course, the launching of Chris Kunitz, Jan Rutta, Brandon Manning, and Brandon Davidson would finish the housecleaning. And thankfully, Rutta was waived and sent to Rockford. Now for the other three.

CHICAGO, IL – DECEMBER 02: Chicago Blackhawks goaltender Corey Crawford (50) defends the net against Calgary Flames center Sam Bennett (93) and Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Duncan Keith (2) during a game between the Calgary Flames and the Chicago Blackhawks on December 2, 2018, at the United Center in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Patrick Gorski/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

On a magic carpet ride

So while you play armchair GM pondering the fate of the team, take a ride with me on a magic carpet ride. Who’s out there that could help you rebuild your team? Here are some interesting options.

Travis Sanheim of the Philadelphia Flyers is a former 2014 first round draft pick. He’s your big, mobile defenseman at 6-feet-4, 200 pounds, who has not yet reached his potential at the age of 22. While playing behind the likes of Ivan Provarov, Shayne Gostisbehere, Andrew MacDonald (on injured reserve), Christian Folin, Radko Gudas, and Robert Hagg, he’s posted positive Corsi percentages in his two NHL seasons. Sanheim had some issues last year with consistency but has shown better this season. He has a high ceiling but is buried in the third pairing. With the Flyers 9 points out of a wild card spot, new general manager Chuck Fletcher may be inclined to make some moves to salvage his team’s season. With starting goalie Brian Elliot out with an injury and their goalie situation already tentative, the Flyers have a need. They could be interested in Corey Crawford.

Raffl in for Goulbourne. Neuvirth day-to-day; Elliott week-to-week
— Dave Isaac (@davegisaac) November 27, 2018

Jake Gardiner of the Toronto Maple Leafs will be an unrestricted free agent when this season ends. He is 28 years old and currently has a salary cap hit of $4,050,000. He could command a new contract worth $6,500,000 per year. The Maple Leafs will also have to re-sign Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, and a few more to new contracts. Their organization might not have enough cap space to sign all of them, which might make Gardiner or the younger Travis Dermott available in trade. If the Maple Leafs desired Duncan Keith at $5,538,462 per year, they would obtain a championship savvy defenseman with a reasonable long-term salary. That would give them the flexibility to re-sign more of their prized young stars. And they have a current year salary cap cushion of $5,830,851. The math works.

The Vegas Golden Knights have a plethora of high draft picks under the belt due to the many deals general manager George McPhee pulled off during the NHL expansion draft. They have a current cap space of $7,059,991. They have an expiring contract on defenseman Deryk Engelland (whom you wouldn’t resign) and several desirable prospects in their system. One is big defenseman Jake Bischoff, who sports a high plus/minus with the AHL Chicago Wolves. The other is elite center Cody Glass, currently with the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL. Vegas is an intriguing trade partner.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – JUNE 28: Vice President and General Manager of the Chicago Blackhawks Stan Bowman attends the 2014 NHL Entry Draft at Wells Fargo Center on June 28, 2014 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images) /

People get ready.

Something has to or some things have to give, right? Staying on this present course is proving more and more that the current plan is not going to work. Our own John Aubert has also weighed in on this sensitive topic in his editorial. The Chicago Blackhawks, as currently constructed, are going nowhere fast. Unless you consider tanking to the bottom of the standings to increase the odds of drafting first in next year’s NHL draft as going somewhere.

Jack Hughes is the consensus favorite to be the next number one overall NHL draft pick next spring. He is a definite difference maker who could affect an NHL team the way 2018 number one overall draft pick Rasmus Dahlin has had an immediate impact with the Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres are currently in 3rd place in the Atlantic division after finishing in last place last year. So one player really can affect a team, contrary to what many experts may say. The risk is that tanking aggravates the fans, who still want to see entertaining hockey, and also it does not guarantee your draft position because of a lottery system for the bottom 10 teams.

So, the way for the Chicago Blackhawks to climb out of their sinkhole is to live with the truth. Even if they have started to show some competitive fire, they are not going to be a playoff team this year. Sticking with the current roster is to be blind to the fact that the declining core will be harder and harder to complement and compensate for while waiting for iffy young talent to mature.

The possibilities I’ve offered are just that, possibilities. And not all of these proposals need to be done together if the right pieces are obtained to fill in the gaps. There are good players out there to acquire via trade who would upgrade the under-age-29 group the ‘Hawks currently have. But the ‘Hawks need to diversify their approach to acquiring players. The trend toward smaller, high skill players is a disturbing one. Modern hockey still needs more than just speed and skill. The recent successful teams have had that right combination of speed, skill, size, and grit.

Sam Boland also weighed in on the team’s resurgence in intensity, including a surprising victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins. Remember that a current surge does not mean that the ‘Hawks are going to capture a wild card berth this season. The surge can’t overshadow just where the team is heading after Bowman’s mishandling of the roster.

Next. 'Hawks Show Potential and How Far They Have To Go. dark

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The organization needs to decide if Stan Bowman is the right man to orchestrate a comeback. His record of rewarding past performance with large contracts has hamstrung this team. He may not be able to part with any of his prized players, even though he did trade away Artemi Panarin and Niklas Hjalmarsson in questionable moves. Chairman Rocky Wirtz also needs to evaluate the performance of team president John McDonough and his vision for the present and the future. The organization needs to start exploring all possible options to legitimately say that they have One Goal. Let’s Go, ‘Hawks.

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