Will 2019 be a happy new year for the Chicago Blackhawks?

DENVER, CO - DECEMBER 21: Goaltender Collin Delia #60 of the Chicago Blackhawks stands in goal against the Colorado Avalanche at the Pepsi Center on December 21, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - DECEMBER 21: Goaltender Collin Delia #60 of the Chicago Blackhawks stands in goal against the Colorado Avalanche at the Pepsi Center on December 21, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images)
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2018 was a bust for the Chicago Blackhawks.  Will 2019 be any better?

The Chicago Blackhawks have been spiraling downward since their 2015 Stanley Cup championship.  We’ve chronicled the trials and tribulations of the organization from the front office down to the players.  It certainly hasn’t been pretty or very enjoyable to watch a great team implode to the bottom of the NHL standings.  When you drop that far down, there’s only one way left to go but up, right?

Not so fast, Kowalski!

Reasons to be concerned.

Last year at this time, I wrote about the Chicago Blackhawks’ wish list.  It included shot suppression,  an NHL-caliber defense, forward line chemistry, and Santa Crow bringing goalie wins to all good boys and girls. Fast forward to the present and they’re still wishing for the same things.  Let’s look at these issues.

Shots, shots, shots.

Last year, the Chicago Blackhawks were living in the netherworld between bad and good in regard to unblocked shots for and against.  This year, they’re just bad.  Take a peek at the chart from Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) that plots 5-on-5 unblocked shots for and against.  The only team worse than the ‘Hawks are the Ottawa Senators.

In their last game against the New York Islanders, the ‘Hawks surrendered 50 shots on their net.  Goalie Collin Delia managed to stop all but 3 of that barrage of shots.  In their last five games, they have been out-shot 193-145.  The ‘Hawks currently rank 23rd in the league for the number blocked shots.  They are not last in this statistic, but they also give up the 3rd most shots in the NHL.  This paints the whole picture of the ‘Hawks allowing their netminder to be pummeled on a nightly basis.

The roster lacks enough players fast enough to keep up with speedy forwards.  We’ve seen numerous scoring chances and actual goals where the opposition managed to get behind the defense.  The roster also lacks players who are willing to sell out in the defensive zone to block shots.  It was obvious how upset former coach Joel Quenneville became when his best shot blocker in Niklas Hjalmarsson was traded away.  There aren’t enough defenseman willing to turn their bodies to absorb shots the way Hjalmarsson did, other than Brent Seabrook and Connor Murphy.

What we have seen in the way of shot blocks has mainly been players in a stand-up goalie stance offering about a 2-foot width barrier.  Turning sideways in a genuflect offers at least twice that area, but boy that can hurt.  This is a major problem that hasn’t been corrected.  There doesn’t seem to be any desire from the team to improve in that area.  And the Chicago Blackhawks can’t depend on Collin Delia to sustain a gaudy .952 save percentage to constantly compensate for their lack of dedication.

UNIONDALE, NEW YORK – JANUARY 03: Gustav Forsling #42 of the Chicago Blackhawks defends against Joshua Ho-Sang #26 of the New York Islandersduring their game at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on January 03, 2019 in Uniondale, New York. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
UNIONDALE, NEW YORK – JANUARY 03: Gustav Forsling #42 of the Chicago Blackhawks defends against Joshua Ho-Sang #26 of the New York Islandersduring their game at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on January 03, 2019 in Uniondale, New York. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) /

Defensive woes continue

The Chicago Blackhawks have been utilizing a new shutdown pairing of Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom.  They have been noticeably more physical in their play, but they aren’t the fastest skaters on the ice.  They have also been logging some big minutes while living on the positive side of plus/minus over the last five games.

Duncan Keith has been paired with Erik Gustafsson while Henri Jokiharju has been on loan to Team Finland for the World Juniors tournament.  Together, they’ve posted negative plus/minus over the last five games, as their defensive breakdowns have been costly.

Gustav Forsling and Brent Seabrook have struggled together.  This is a pairing that didn’t work well last year and still doesn’t look good this year.

What happens when Jokiharju returns? This and many more questions about the defense linger.  What isn’t a question is how bad the ‘Hawks are with unblocked shots against.  The ‘Hawks only look better recently results-wise because of the stellar play from goalie Collin Delia.

Bad chemistry experiments

In contrast to the 50 shots surrendered against the Islanders, the Chicago Blackhawks generated only 21 shots on the Islanders’ net.  As Wayne Gretzky once said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”  The team continues to look for the perfect shot instead of creating chaos by pumping shots toward the net.  Part of the problem is the team’s overall inability to traverse through the neutral zone.  Poor passing is reaching an epidemic proportion, as we see numerous passes hitting skates instead of stick blades, passes into double coverage, passes to the opposition, and soft passes that are easily intercepted.

However, the top line of Brandon Saad, Jonathan Toews, and Dominik Kahun are making things happen by carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating possession time with short, quick passes and by winning board battles.  Saad and Toews are playing a more straight-ahead game, with Kahun using his speed to chase down loose pucks.  The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus highlighted this disturbing stat about this line’s Corsi rating in the Islanders game:

After the top line, the other three lines are getting killed in possession time.  While Dylan Strome and Patrick Kane are beginning to develop chemistry, long cross-ice passes are getting picked off for turnovers.  Artem Anisimov at left wing is a questionable move.  While the dual big forward combination of Strome and Anisimov helps with board battles, Kane needs a forward to cycle with a la the departed Nick Schmaltz and Artemi Panarin.  Kane has been on a scoring hot streak, but it seems his best chemistry is being formed with defenseman Erik Gustafsson.  Both Strome and Gustafsson have problems with defensive coverage, so that second line tends to chase the puck at times.

The latest third line with Alex DeBrincat, David Kampf, and Dylan Sikura had their moments.  They possess both speed and skill, but only Kampf brings size.  There have been questions about the Cat’s deployment on the third line, but I feel this is where he belongs for now.  His scoring ability is undeniable, but his penchant for turning over the puck high in the offensive zone and through the neutral zone must improve.  He is destined to be a top-six forward, but for now, his turnovers aren’t as costly against a lower quality of competition.  Sikura just isn’t physically ready for the NHL, despite his elite skating, and was sent back to Rockford for more seasoning.  He was losing board battles and just can’t fight through checks.

I continue to like Kampf and his work ethic.  He uses his size and speed to win battles and create opportunities.  The newly acquired Drake Caggiula might find himself on this third line.  He has at least proven to be an NHL caliber player.

What happens on the fourth line is anyone’s guess, as players rotate in and out.

A very telling statistic about offensive chemistry comes from the team’s conversion rate on scoring chances.  They sit at the bottom of the NHL in this category.

Again, the chemistry of the forward lines is in doubt, as they get pounded in scoring chances for versus scoring chances against.  Their inability to sustain puck possession in the offensive zone results in their chasing the play in their own end.

We can talk about chemistry, but it’s difficult to build chemistry when the elements to build with are lacking.  The Chicago Blackhawks have retooled their roster on the fly, and the result is the dwindling core surrounded by a bunch of developing or not ready players.  Their overall Corsica star rating is dead last, meaning that they aren’t doing much of anything special.

CHICAGO, IL – DECEMBER 27: Chicago Blackhawks goaltender Collin Delia (60) makes a glove save in third period action during a game between the Chicago Blackhawks and the Minnesota Wild on December 27, 2018 at the United Center, in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL – DECEMBER 27: Chicago Blackhawks goaltender Collin Delia (60) makes a glove save in third period action during a game between the Chicago Blackhawks and the Minnesota Wild on December 27, 2018 at the United Center, in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Deal or no deal.

With Corey Crawford out indefinitely with another concussion, the burden of stopping the nightly barrage of shots falls upon the tandem of Cam Ward and Collin Delia.  After a rocky start in the season, Ward settled down to show flashes of greatness from his younger years.  But that has been greatly overshadowed by the stellar performances by Delia.  Delia displays incredible lateral movement as his most noticeable ability.  He’s been tracking pucks well through traffic and has had only a few missteps in losing his net.  That .952 save percentage is probably unsustainable, but it does indicate a high end of talent on his part.  Our followers agree.

The question now is whether he should carry the bulk of starting assignments through the second half of the season.  I would say the answer is YES.  With this rebuild on the fly, it’s time to let this young goalie develop along with the team. The only danger in giving Delia the lion’s share of starts is that he will continue to be hung out to dry nightly by a team that can’t suppress shots. Constant losing can be a deflating element.  From the interview after his first loss against the Islanders, Delia looked like a guy whose dog just died.

But as The Athletic’s Cat Silverman wrote about Delia, he is a constant learner. He appears to be of a special breed, an analytical guy who soaks in everything and translates the physical to the mental.  He has the mental constitution to work through this rebuild without losing hope.

Reasons for hope.

Our wish list is definitely unfulfilled.  Shot suppression still needs work.  Hello, new assistant coach Sheldon Brookbank.  Jeremy Colliton’s ex-assistant from Rockford is now his assistant with the ‘Hawks.  We’ll see if Brookbank reinforces the new style of a tighter defensive gap to pressure opposing forwards.  Jokiharju returns from Team Finland, and this can only help out defensively.  And a better defense leads to better offense.  The substitution of Sikura for Caggiula will help.  And the emergence of Delia gives the five skaters the comfort to concentrate on their revised assignments.

A rebuild on the fly is a risky venture.  The fact that the ‘Hawks are rebuilding is encouraging in itself.  It’s one step at a time.  Colliton certainly has his work cut out for him to make a dubious roster more functional.  To his credit, he has his team overachieving a bit.

It’s a new year and a new approach.

Next. Blackhawks Week in Review, 1/4. dark

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We continue to hope that this team will find its way, either with the current personnel or with more changes for the better.  In either case, I wish all Chicago Blackhawks fans a happy, healthy and safe new year.  And as always, Let’s Go Hawks.

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