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Chicago Blackhawks: Predicting When the Next Trade Will Come

By Jimmy Lynch

CHICAGO, IL - FEBRUARY 25: Stan Bowman, VP and GM of the Chicago Blackhawks, speaks to the press after the Blackhawks make the announcement they are bringing Andrew Ladd back to the team, during the NHL game against the Nashville Predators at the United Center on February 25, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Chase Agnello-Dean/NHLI via Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL - FEBRUARY 25: Stan Bowman, VP and GM of the Chicago Blackhawks, speaks to the press after the Blackhawks make the announcement they are bringing Andrew Ladd back to the team, during the NHL game against the Nashville Predators at the United Center on February 25, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Chase Agnello-Dean/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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Using Stan Bowman’s track record to predict when the next Chicago Blackhawks trade will happen.

The Chicago Blackhawks have made their fair share of trades through the years. Entering the season, it might be interesting to look to the past to see if we can make any inferences on when we might see a trade this season.

I’m not naming players that could be traded, because we have no clue who that could be yet. However, I can try to tell you when a trade might occur.

I analyzed the Blackhawks’ in-season trades from the start of the 2016 season until this past season. You get a relatively fair split with those 4 years of 2 playoff seasons and 2 non-playoff seasons. Let’s take a closer look at the raw data.

The Blackhawks made 20 trades during the season over the last 4-year span. The Blackhawks had two seasons where they were pushing for a Stanley Cup and bought players around the trade deadline. Then, there were two seasons where they were on the outside looking in and sold at the trade deadline.

More from Blackhawk Up

Obviously, February will see the majority of the trades with the trade deadline, but that still does not mean trades will only occur in February. Let’s take a look at the ‘Hawks trades month by month.

October

The Blackhawks have made no trades in October since the start of the 2016 season. Don’t expect one this year either. Stan Bowman sets up his team in the offseason.

If he needs to make a trade in October, something is really wrong. Do not expect the Blackhawks to make a trade in October.

November

Chicago has made one trade in November the last few years, they traded Nick Schmaltz to the Arizona Coyotes for Dylan Strome and Brendan Perlini last season on November 25th. Obviously, Chicago has made a lot of trades in February.

It is around the trade deadline and they are fine-tuning their roster for the end of the season, but trades like this at the beginning of the season are ones that change the dynamic of your team.

If the Blackhawks do make a trade in November this season, expect it to be something that drastically changes the outlook of the team, like trading a big prospect or swapping star players.

December

The ‘Hawks have 2 December trades under their belt over the last few seasons. The most notable being last season when they traded Brandon Manning to the Oilers for Drake Caggiula.

Caggiula would go on to be a top-line forward throughout much of the season for Blackhawks.

The other trade that occurred in December also involved the Blackhawks trading a defenseman. Chicago’s defense should watch out come December, because someone might find themselves being shipped out.

January

One-quarter of the Blackhawks in-season trades occurred in January. The range of players traded in this month go from Jeremy Morin to Ryan Garbutt. Chicago has made 5 trades in January, all of which occurred in the first 11 days in the month.

If the Blackhawks are going to trade anyone in January this year, do not expect it to be an important player. It might be two depth players swapping teams.

February

More than half of the Chicago Blackhawks’ trades over the past four seasons occurred in February. With that being said, one could assume Chicago will make a trade in February this season.

Players that have been traded in February tend to be younger unproven NHL players like Ryan Hartman being traded to Nashville.

However, when the Blackhawks are actually in a playoff race, the chances they add a player in February is pretty high.

Both in 2016 and 2017, the Blackhawks traded away assets for players, like when they traded for Andrew Ladd and they lost a slew of prospects and their first-round pick in 2016.

In Conclusion

When you analyze the Chicago Blackhawks’ trades through NHL Trade Tracker, you gain some insights you might not have had without it.

Going into the season, it might be interesting to know that more than half of the Blackhawks’ in-season trades occur in February.

Also, you notice that the earlier in the season a trade occurs, the more likely it is that the player will make an impact on the franchise.

We are less than 25 days away from the start of the season for the Blackhawks. We don’t know who will be traded this year, but we just might know when the trade will happen.

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