Blackhawks: Can Chicago’s Offense Match-Up with McDavid and Draisaitl?

Line By Line Breakdown for the Oilers and Blackhawks

Coming out of training camp I was curious about why Kubalik wasn’t on the first line. Then in the exhibition game, he got moved up and boy did it work.

The first line matchup is a fun one. It will test the argument of Toews being one of the best two-way centers in the league as he faces the best player in the league, Connor McDavid. Chicago will be rolling out Kubalik, Toews, Saad as their first line.

They will have the advantage of playoff experience with Toews and Saad while the youth and skill of Kubalik. Kubalik is a Calder, rookie of the year, finalist scoring 30 goals this season and looking like he hasn’t lost a beat since the shutdown, scoring two goals in the exhibition game. The combination of experienced two-way players and young skill makes them a great line to compete with the Oilers’ top line of Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, Kassian.

The plan for the Blackhawks against this line no matter who match ups up is to control the puck and keep off of McDavid’s stick as much as they can. If this line controls the puck like they were in the Blues game expect great things, not just this series but these playoffs.

That’s where his complements can cause issues. Kassian is a powerful skilled player who will take control of the defensive zone. If I had to bet Kassian will soon be hated as much as Bieksa was in those old Vancouver series. He is someone who will hit hard and try to get under the skin of a young player like Kubalik. If this is the matchup we see, expect Toews to fight him at least once in this series. Those two will be going at it all series and will be the definition of playoff hockey.

The one issue is they won’t get to pick the matchups for the first two games and the experience of coach Dave Tippet will make sure the McDavid line will be out there against inferior defensive lines if Toews becomes an issue.  An inferior defensive line that you should not expect him to face is the one involving Patrick Kane.

Second Line

In the second line, the conversation starts and ends at Draisaitl and Kane. Both of these players are arguably the top 10 players in the NHL. They both are complete game-changers on the offensive side of the ice. If one of them gets hot the series is decided.

The supporting cast for these lines comes down to Alex Nylander and Kailer Yamamoto. The reports from camp are that Nylander has taken a massive step in the right direction. If that is true this line will carry the Blackhawks on the offensive side of the rink. In the exhibition game, he showed signs of taking a step with his speed on the backcheck and forecheck but he also showed old Nylander where he would shy away from hits and not hold on to the puck.

When Yamamoto and Draisaitl were first put together it changed the Oilers offense. They looked like they were clicking on all fronts together in their exhibition game and will look to continue that in this series. This line for each team respectively will be the biggest factor in the series. Don’t expect these lines to face off against each other often but if they do it will be some of the best hockey you will ever watch.

Dylan Strome and Tyler Ennis finish up these lines. They are both good players who will be important for this series. Their roles will be more supportive and reacting to what they are given rather than carrying their respective lines.

Third and Fourth Lines

The third line for Chicago will be the biggest risk-reward in the entire lineup.  The Blackhawks are rolling out Caggiula and Debrincat centered by Kirby Dach. Debrincat had been practicing on the first line but was moved down to the third in the exhibition game. Then the biggest buzz around the Blackhawks training camp with the improvement of Kirby Dach. The biggest observation of Kirby Dach is how big he looks compared to before the break. He did look better on the defensive side of the puck and had a great assist on the power play.  If it shows in these games the third line will be a difference-maker for the Blackhawks.

This is also the line that has the biggest chance to be exploited by the top two lines of the Oilers. They are young with no playoff experience. They have been practicing against the Kane line to be prepared to face these top lines. The chance for the Oilers to win is attacking this line with their Draisaitl or McDavid line.

The Oilers will roll out Sheahan, Athanasiou, Archibald. This line like most of the Oilers team is about speed, speed, and speed. You will have to expect the Blackhawks will try to match the Kane line against them.

The fourth line for both teams is going to be game by game. Both teams will move players in and out of the lineup based on the needs of the previous game. The Blackhawks will use it as a defensive grinder line stabled by Carpenter with their main job will be to stop the Draisaitl line. The Oilers have a true goal score in James Neal on the line. You would expect to see him on special teams and move around the lineup due to his devastating shot.

Potential Match-Ups

The decision of the matchups between Dave Tippet and Jeremy Colliton will be a chess match. The experience and the fact Tippet gets three “home games” where he gets the last change is why he will have a slight advantage over Colliton.

If I had to guess the first lines will match up against each other. The Oilers outpace the Blackhawks there with McDavid and the Blackhawks will want it to have their experience and captain out there against the first line. The Blackhawks will throw out the fourth line against them a few times to try to have their top two lines get better matchups.

The Oilers will probably want their second line to be against the third line of the Blackhawks. The Oilers have the second part of their two-headed monster in Drasital against a young, inexperienced line of Dach, DeBrincat, and Caggiula. The Blackhawks won’t want that but with the improvement, Dach has shown and the fact they have been preparing for it as they matched them against the Kane line in scrimmages the Hawks could be in a strong situation to shut down that line as well.

The Blackhawks will want the Dach and Kane line to battle against the bottom two lines to develop the offense. Expect when the Blackhawks have the last chance to have 1st line versus 1st line, 2nd line versus one of the bottom two lines, 3rd line versus the other of the bottom two lines, and the 4th line against the 2nd line.  This will allow the lines they want to develop the offense have the chance to avoid the top two lines where they will have to play in the defensive zone more than wanted.

The Oilers will be dependent on the top lines producing goals against a weak defensive group. The Blackhawks will be depending on their young players’ producing in their first playoff experience and Corey Crawford to stand on his head as he has in prior playoffs. The series will be close and I would expect it to go to five games. The Blackhawks are currently +145 to win the series; this team right now has great offensive depth and an all-time goalie, it might just be enough to win it.