Chicago Blackhawks: They Released the Kraken…Now What?

The list of things to do for Stan Bowman and the Blackhawks front office is extensive this offseason.

There are RFAs, UFAs, the Draft, and assembling a roster that can build on the surprising play of the 2020-2021 truncated season. But up next on the docket is the arrival of the Seattle Kraken, and their expansion draft which will impact the Chicago Blackhawks.

According to NHL.com, the rules for this expansion draft are the same as they were for the Vegas Golden Knights, with one exception: The Golden Knights are excluded from the pool of teams the Kraken can choose from. Here is an article that explains the rules from NHL.com.

There are guidelines for both the Kraken and the other 30 teams in the Expansion Draft:

• Kraken Will Select 1 player from each eligible team (excluding Vegas) – 30 total
• Must select at least 14 F, 9 D, and 3 G
• Must choose at least 20 players that are currently under contract for ’21-‘22, and reach 60% of the Upper Limit of the Salary Cap
• Cannot buy out any contracts until after the conclusion of their first season in the league

Participating Team Guidelines:

• Can protect players from the Expansion Draft (7 F/3 D/ 1 G, OR 8 Skaters/ 1 G)
• All players with No-Movement Clauses must be protected, and count towards the protected group (in the case of the Blackhawks, that means Kane, Toews, Keith, and Seabrook count in the protected group)
• Must expose a player that meets the following criteria:
  • 1 D who is under contract for ’21-’22, AND played either 40+ games in the prior season, or 70+ games the prior two seasons
  • 2 F who are under contract for ’21-’22 AND played either 40+ games in the prior season, or 70+ games the prior two seasons
  • 1 G who is under contract for ’21-’22, or will be an RFA this offseason. If RFA is chosen, the qualifying offer must be tendered prior to expansion draft.
• Players with potential career-ending injuries or have missed 60+ consecutive games MAY NOT be used to satisfy a team’s exposure requirements unless approved by the NHL (Seabrook and Shaw could fall under this distinction)

By Saturday, July 17th, teams are required to submit their lists to the NHL, so the Kraken know who the pool of available players are they can choose from.

Ok, so that’s the what of Expansion Drafting for the Kraken. Which brings us to the Blackhawks. Any player they own the rights to but has not signed an entry-level contract is exempt, so we will ignore that group for now. Also, any first or second-year professionals are exempt from selection, so that automatically protects a group of players, without counting against the total. I will take a look at that group in a future article, as there is some appeal to not only the Kraken, but other teams as well.

First, the Hawks have to decide who to protect.  We are going to take a look at each position group, and review all the players eligible for protection or exposure in the Expansion Draft. I will provide a brief assessment of the player based on stats and my own observations, and then provide both a verdict of what I would do, and the risks associated with doing it my way. We’ll start with the easiest one first:

The Goalies

Kevin Lankinen, Malcolm Subban, and Colin Delia are all eligible for the Expansion Draft. The Hawks can only protect 1 of them, regardless of which method they choose for their Expansion Draft List. Let’s take a look at each, and then decide what the Hawks Could or Should do:

Kevin Lankinen:  Has decent size at 6’2”, 185. Was considered the 3rd wheel in the goalie competition in training camp, but when given the opportunity to audition for the job, seized it and held the #1 G spot for the majority of the season. Played in 37 games, and finished with a 3.01 GAA, and a 0.909 save percentage. Based on what I saw, he wore down towards the end of the season, and his numbers reflected the slide down the stretch. He is a solid technical goalie and puts himself in position a lot of the time. His weak spot seems to be blocker side high, and teams attacked that as the season wore on. Under contract for ’21-’22 for a bargain $800K Cap Hit (Cap Friendly).

Malcolm Subban:  Also a 6’2 goalie, about the same size as Lankinen. The most experienced of the 3 goalies coming into camp, with 86 professional games in his career. He struggled early, but settled in to the #2G role, and played pretty well. Finished the year with a 3.20 GAA, and an even 0.900 save percentage.

Subban is highly athletic, and regularly makes the highlight reel save that makes you ooh and aahhh, but if there is an area where he “struggles,” it’s rebound control. Too many rebounds ended up in front, giving the opposition second shots on him too often.

A lot of that can be attributed to poor defense in front, but those rebounds need to go to poor-angle areas of the zone to allow recovery time to the G. Under contract for ’21-’22 for a bargain $850k Cap Hit (Cap Friendly)

Colin Delia:  The Hawks seem to like 6’2, 185-190 lb goalies, as Delia checks in at the same measurement. Coming into camp, most assumed it was his job to lose, and he apparently did that in his first two outings, giving up a heavy handful of goals in each game. He spent the majority of the year after that in Rockford or on the Taxi Squad, only appearing in 6 games in the NHL, but only 4 games for Rockford.

A forgotten man for most of the year, he made the most of his final appearances, looking solid at the end of the year, but not spectacular. He is a solid technician, but lacks the “wow” factor of Subban, and the consistency of Lankinen in positioning. He has a $1M Cap Hit in ’21-’22 (Cap Friendly).

Verdict: I believe there is no question the Hawks protect Lankinen for the Expansion Draft, as he was clearly their #1 option for the ‘20-‘21 season. With some conditioning, some work on his blocker side, which I am sure Jimmy Waite is already working on, and a more balanced workload, he should be the #1 G again, and the hope has to be that the Hawks will see more of the 0.920 Save Percentage, 2.4-2.6 GAA player they had for chunks of this past season.

Risk: The Hawks are at mild risk of losing either Subban or Delia to the Expansion Draft, but given the players, the Hawks will have to expose at F and D, I believe the risk is very low that they will lose either of them. If one does go, I believe it will be Subban, for his abilities on the “wow” side as a backup G.

The Defense

Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Calvin DeHaan, Connor Murphy, Nikita Zadorov, and Riley Stillman are all eligible for exposure in the Expansion Draft. Keith and Seabrook both have Full No-Movement Clauses in their contract, so they are required to be protected.

The only exception would be if one of them were to waive their NMC, which I do not foresee happening. Depending on which method the Hawks choose, they can either protect 3 D, or 8 Skaters. For the purposes of this exercise, we will assume the Hawks are protecting 3 D and 7 F. Let’s take a look at the group on the hook:

Duncan Keith: Unless he chooses to, Keith isn’t going anywhere. He has been the top defenseman on the Hawks for several years, and still logs heavy minutes every night. He is still a solid D-man, capable of contributing in his own zone, on the power play, and on offense. However, going on 38 years old (and having 16 years in the league), Keith inevitably is going to start wearing down, and I think you could see glimpses of that this season. He deserves to be a Hawk for life, but they can make his final years more effective by reducing the number of minutes he plays nightly, and spelling him on special teams occasionally with younger legs.

Brent Seabrook: We can talk about his play in recent years, and his struggle with injuries, but the fact remains that Seabs put it all on the line for the team for a lot longer than he should have. He is another who earned his “Hawk for life” status. He is likely never playing again, and if he were able to come back, it is unknown what he could provide. The Seabrook of old is not coming back. However, he is still under contract, with a Full No-Movement Clause, so he is on the protected list.

Calvin DeHaan: DeHaan is a versatile defenseman with decent size, and is well-rounded in all areas of his game. If not for his shoulder issues over the years, I believe he would be discussed among the top half of defensemen in the league. And would be a fixture in a team’s top 4. However, he hasn’t played a full season since 2016 with the Islanders, and that is not likely to change moving forward. He is a second or third pairing guy on a good team, but on a young or developing team, he can be a steadying influence on the 1st or 2nd pairing.

Connor Murphy: Murph is the only defensive-minded player the Hawks have on the right side. He has become their strongest shutdown defenseman, and was named as Assistant Captain this past season in Toews’ absence. He has great size at 6’4, and can play a physical style as well as move the puck out of the zone. Doesn’t offer a ton of offensive ability, but is average for the style of player he is. He is clearly the Hawks’ most valuable defenseman, and at 28 years old, still has multiple prime years ahead of him.

Nikita Zadorov: Zadorov was brought over in the Saad deal to be a physical presence, and with elite size and checking ability, he did that. However, he does not offer a lot on the offensive side, and his physical style and aggressiveness leaves him out of position and hangs his partner out to dry a lot more frequently than I would prefer. Sometimes in this league, especially in the playoffs, you need to be able to play a physical style, but not at the expense of increased high-danger chances. For that reason, I do not think Big Z has a place on this team long-term.

Riley Stillman: Stillman is an interesting case. He is more physical than any of the other young D the Hawks used this season, and has shown a surprising level of composure in his own zone that I did not expect to see from him. The Hawks just signed him to a 3 year extension, which would lead you to think they view him in their long-term plans, but the numbers don’t favor him being protected in the expansion draft, unless the Hawks go the 8 Skater route, which leaves more forwards unprotected.

Verdict: If the Hawks stay with the 7F/3D model, the verdict is pretty straightforward in my opinion. You are required to protect Keith and Seabrook, unless Seabrook waives his NMC. So as it stands today, the Hawks protect Keith, Seabrook, and Murphy, and expose Zadorov, DeHaan, and Stillman. If they go 8 Skaters, I would add Stillman to the protected list.

Risk: The Hawks will only lose one player, but it is a pretty solid chance that the player they lose comes from this group. DeHaan is a solid choice for a young team, but they could gamble on the still-developing upside of Stillman and take him. I would call this mild to moderate risk.

FORWARDS:

Johnathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat, Brett Connolly, Dylan Strome, Ryan Carpenter, Vinnie Hinostroza, David Kampf, Adam Gaudette, Brandon Hagel, Henrik Borgstrom, Andrew Shaw, Zach Smith, Alex Nylander, Brandon Pirri, and John Quenneville are all eligible for exposure in the Expansion Draft. Toews and Kane have Full No-Movement Clauses in their contract, so they are required to be protected. As with Keith and Seabrook, I do not anticipate either of them waiving their no-movement clauses. Based on the assumptions we are using for this exercise, the Hawks are protecting 7 F. There are a lot of interesting conversations to be had with this group, so we’ll dive right in:

Johnathan Toews: First, let’s assume the Captain is coming back next season and will be back to the form we saw in 2019-2020. We can argue whether he is or isn’t a premier Centerman anymore, but he is a plus faceoff guy, a 2 way workhorse, and can be on the ice in any situation. You need that on your team. His full NMC notwithstanding, I would protect Toews regardless. He is another in the “Hawk for Life” pantheon.

Patrick Kane: Kane did it all for this team, while dealing with a mystery issue that slowed him down considerably down the stretch. But when he was on, he was still electric in the offensive zone. While he will never be a true 2-way forward, he put forth a lot more effort on the forecheck, in the neutral zone, and in his own zone than I have seen in several years. This one’s a no-brainer, even without the NMC. Kane is the last of the 4 “Hawk for Life” members on this current roster.

Alex DeBrincat: As clear-cut as this could be as far as protecting him, you could make a case that an exciting player like DeBrincat would be a huge boost to a team like Seattle, and lend the team some excitement right out of the gate. DeBrincat could be “the guy” in Seattle, rather than playing second fiddle to Kane in Chicago. I don’t know that he wants that, but it is something that could generate further discussion down the line between the Hawks and the Kraken. But his emergence as a 2-way STUD this season would lead me to protect him without blinking.

Brett Connolly: Brett is a solid veteran player, and does several things well enough to be a fixture on a 3rd or 4th line. Problem is, Hawks have a ton of those guys already, and most of them are younger and cheaper than Connolly. I think he gets exposed, but I don’t see him getting selected by the Kraken.

Dylan Strome: Here’s the first firecracker of the group, one that will generate strong opinions on both sides. I could see the Kraken taking him for a 2nd or 3rd line Center, but I could just as easily see them passing him over for another player. He clearly is out of favor with the coaching staff in Chicago, but he is still under contract for another year at $3M. I highly doubt the Hawks see him as a part of their future right now.

Ryan Carpenter: I see him much the same as Connolly. Solid vet, can play in a number of situations, but likely gets squeezed by a younger player, especially after how well Hardman and Entwistle showed down the stretch.

Vinnie Hinostroza: Vinnie is a guy I wouldn’t mind seeing on the roster again, but I don’t think it’s in the cards. Good skater, solid playmaker, works hard in all areas of the ice. He would be a great bottom 6 addition for the Kraken, but I don’t think they will waste their Expansion Draft selection on him. I think he could end up there anyway after his contract expires.

CONCLUSION

In summary, if they followed my recommendations, the Hawks would be protecting: Lankinen, Keith, Seabrook, Murphy, Toews, Kane, DeBrincat, Gaudette, Borgstrom, Hagel, and Strome.

Rather than repeat the exercise for the second option of 8 Skaters, 1 Goalie, I would protect:

Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, DeBrincat, Murphy, Hagel, Borgstrom, and Lankinen. I might swap Gaudette for Borgstrom, but that would be the only question mark for me.

The interesting part of this exercise to me is that you have to try and read the minds of the front office and coaching staff, delving into the short and long-term strategies they are executing. You also have to start thinking about what the Kraken would want, and where you can take risks in leaving players unprotected while maintaining a solid chance of keeping them if you want them.

Hopefully, you enjoyed going through this with me. I would love to know where you disagree with me, and who you would protect in the place of the disputed player.  The Hawks have some important decisions to make this offseason; Expansion Draft, Entry Draft, Restricted and Unrestricted Free Agency, and Roster Decisions. It all gets started in a little over a month when they have to turn their list into the league.

Chicago Blackhawks: Five prospects to get excited about

From that point, the team picture of the 2021-2022 Chicago Blackhawks will start to come into focus. I will be watching carefully.