Blackhawks Business: Still Work To Do

Marc-Andre Fleury has been added to the team. The Defensive group has been overhauled. The team is in a more competitive position for the 2021-2022 season. But there is still work to do for Stan Bowman and Co.

Now that the chaotic portion of the offseason is complete, let’s review what has changed since the end of last season:

Additions to the roster: Seth Jones (trade), Marc-Andre Fleury (trade). Caleb Jones (trade), Tyler Johnson (trade), Jujhar Khaira (FA), Jake McCabe (FA), Adam Gaudette (re-signed), Brandon Hagel (qualifying offer), Alex Nylander (Q.O.), Lukas Reichel (ELC), Jakob Pour (ELC), Isaak Phillips (ELC), Arvid Soderblom (ELC). You could also count the return of Toews from his illness as an addition.

No longer on the roster: Duncan Keith (trade), Brent Seabrook (trade), Nikita Zadorov (trade), Adam Boqvist (trade), David Kampf (free agent), Pius Suter (free agent), Vinnie Hinostroza (free agent)

Draft picks:  Nolan Allen (LD), Colton Dach (F), Ethan Del Mastro (LD), Taige Harding (LD), Connor Kelley (RD), Jalen Luypen (F), Ilya Safonov (F), Victor Stjernborg (F).

Currently, the ‘Hawks have 13 Forwards on the main roster, plus 3 F that played at least 1 NHL game for the team in the 2021 season (Hardman, Johnson, Entwistle).

They have 7 D-men on the main roster, plus 3 D who played at least 1 NHL game for the team in the 2021 season (Mitchell, Regula, Beaudin).

They have 2 Goalies on the main roster, plus 2 G that played at least 1 NHL game last season (Delia, Subban).

That is a lot of NHL-level players to sort through, and the pipeline is also getting crowded. So what do the ‘Hawks do now?

Roster Decisions

It is a tough balancing act to focus on not only short-term competitiveness, but long term stability and improvement with the team, but that is precisely the challenge in front of Stan Bowman right now. The additions of Fleury and Seth Jones (and arguably Tyler Johnson) are “win now” moves, but the ‘Hawks were in “rebuild” mode 3 months ago, so which is it?

In truth, it cannot be both. Any “win now” move sets your development plan back, by taking a roster spot that could have been used on a young player, and filling it with a more accomplished  veteran. And some of those veterans have a lot of term left on their contracts.

The Blackhawks are going to have to move some additional pieces to continue the long-term development of the organization. Whether that is established veterans to make room for younger players, or moving out pieces that aren’t going to get their chance due to depth in front of (or behind them), they are going to have to push some pieces out before the season starts.

I think the front office would prefer to move out veterans, because it opens more room under the cap, and they have a lot of contract extensions to get done in the next couple of years. Top choices for me in this group would be Calvin De Haan, Dylan Strome, and Brett Connolly. Each makes at least $3M against the cap, and could be helpful for a team looking to add pieces for a deep run in the playoffs.

Delia or Subban could have value to a team needing a capable backup for their goalie, and are low salary options. However, neither would bring much back in a trade.

So let’s say they move all 3 skaters, and one goalie in trades. Then what?

Player Development/Roster Strategy

The Blackhawks are by all accounts looking to build around Alex DeBrincat and Kirby Dach for the next few years up front. Toews and Kane are still there, but they are putting together a “core” of the future for the team, in the event that Kane and Toews leave after their contracts expire (together) in 2 seasons.

On the blue line, the contracts given to Jones and McCabe say that they are building around larger, mobile defensemen who are responsible in their own end first. The goal of the team is to become harder to play against, which they haven’t been for a few years.

Because of this shift in the core pieces of the team, and overall strategy as they transition away from the “Cup” years, that means that they need to plan their player development accordingly. If they don’t want smaller defensemen any more, they should be focusing their Player Development Personnel on improving their big D-men.

If they want gritty forwards with some skill, then that means players like Nylander no longer fit, and they should focus their attention on bigger, more versatile forwards in the system.

As far as their roster, they need to have a 2-3 year view of who they believe is going to make up their roster. Things are always fluid, but to give an example, let’s say they believe that Lukas Reichel is going to be their #3 C in 2022-2023. They would be looking at Dach and Toews as their top 2 Cs (presumably), so they need to make space on their roster for next season for that #3C spot. That may mean they need to develop a plan to:

• Letting a player walk in free agency that could still help you
• Trading away a player with value to open a slot on the roster
• Buying out a player like Tyler Johnson to open a spot

Not advocating for any of those moves per se, but just to illustrate what they would need to consider if they construct not only their short-term roster, but their long-term view of the roster as well.

Ok, so they set up their roster for the short and long-term. What’s left?

Organizational Structure

This is a really broad term that basically means the following:

Based on the work we have done, and the plans that we have made, we need to do everything possible from an organizational perspective to give this roster a chance to win a Stanley Cup

But what does that really mean? It should mean that everything is on the table, including:

• Adding, subtracting, or replacing coaches at the NHL or AHL level to get the most out of the players in the organization
• Improving facilities (AHL is more what I am thinking about, as discussed here)
• Expanding Player Development Department and Resources
• Adding or moving Scouts to identify more talent to bring to the organization
• Changes to Front Office Structure or Personnel

If the Blackhawks do all of this analysis and self-evaluation and don’t think they have what it takes to legitimately compete for a Stanley Cup during whatever time-frame window they establish, then they need to set a plan in motion that addresses the gaps, and tries to remedy their lack of belief in the future success of the organization.

You see it in how they attacked the Defenseman group and organizational depth the last 2 offseasons. They must have felt they were not good enough on the blue line to contend. They added MAF to their goalie group because they didn’t think their goaltending was good enough to contend right now with a revamped D-corps.

They must feel they have enough up front to compete, because they let talent walk, and didn’t really add much to a group that already includes Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat, Dominik Kubalik, and a returning Jonathan Toews.

The biggest question is “ARE THEY RIGHT?” We will see, and the work is far from over, even though the headlines are few and far between from now until September.