Don't write off drafting Ivar Stenberg just yet

Tuesday night did not go as Chicago Blackhawks fans had hoped. They went from having the second-best odds at landing the first-overall pick to picking fourth in next month's NHL Entry Draft. Even though this was the most likely outcome of the NHL Draft Lottery, it doesn’t make it any less disappointing.

Instead of adding another dynamic forward to the mix, like Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg, the focus turns to who the best defensive prospects in the draft are. While another defensive stud a couple of years down the road is not a bad thing, it isn’t as exciting as getting someone who could play with Connor Bedard as soon as opening night. However, don’t write off landing Stenberg just yet.

Draft Starts with the Sharks

The Toronto Maple Leafs own the first overall pick, and it’s hard to imagine they’d go any other direction than McKenna. It’s too easy a pick for brand-new general manager John Chayka to screw up. So, making the assumption that McKenna is off the board, the real fun begins when the San Jose Sharks are on the clock with the second pick.

Sharks general manager Mike Grier has a tough decision to make. Does he add Stenberg to a talented group that already includes Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, and Michael Misa, or does he look to bolster his blue line? San Jose’s prospect pool is thin at defense. Sam Dickinson is their top young defender, but much like Artyom Levshunov, he still has a lot of development ahead of him.

Their next two top defensive prospects are Eric Pohlkamp and Luca Cagnoli. Both are under 6 feet, and The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler has them in Tier 4 of the Sharks’ prospect pool. After that, it’s former Blackhawks first-round pick Nolan Allan. All of this means taking Chase Reid or Keaton Verhoff with the second pick is probably the right move. The Sharks need another high-end defensive prospect. This doesn’t guarantee they pass on Stenberg here, but they will definitely consider it.

Then comes the Vancouver Canucks at number three. They had their hopes of bringing McKenna home smashed by the ping pong balls and will now watch him play in Toronto. Logic says they should take Stenberg here, but they might go a different route and select Caleb Malhotra from the Brantford Bulldogs.

Caleb’s dad, Manny, was an assistant captain for three seasons, including the Canucks run to the 2011 Stanley Cup Final. He’s currently the head coach of their AHL affiliate in Abbotsford. Many mock drafts have them taking Malhotra, but that’s because Stenberg is off the board. However, Sportsnet’s Sam Consentino and TSN’s Craig Button have the Sharks taking Chase Reid and the Canucks selecting Malhotra.

Trading Up in the Cards

If the Blackhawks really want Stenberg, Kyle Davidson can try to trade with the Sharks to land that second pick. He has plenty of extra capital to throw their way. He could offer the fourth pick and one or more of their three second-round picks in this year’s draft. If the Sharks are set on drafting a defenseman, their guy will likely still be on the board at four, so a swap of picks makes sense.

When suggesting this scenario on the CHGO Blackhawks Podcast last night, one of the first reactions was “Why would the Sharks help the Blackhawks?” Well, they aren’t just “helping” the Blackhawks; they are making a trade that gains them assets, too. That’s how trades work: both teams get something they want. If a general manager didn’t want to “help” another team, we’d never see a trade get made.

If Davidson is sold on Stenberg and doesn’t want to risk him not being available at four, those conversations with Greir would have started last night. With some fans' patience wearing thin, a move like this would go over well. It’s time to start being aggressive about getting this roster to the next level, and trading up for Stenberg would show that Davidson’s is willing to do whatever it takes to get there.

While Stenberg shouldn’t be available at four, you can’t predict the NHL Draft. Everyone had Adam Fantilli going second behind Bedard in 2023, and you can bet nobody in the Montreal Canadiens’ front office expected Ivan Demidov to be on the board at five the following year. And, if you don’t want to rely on other teams to pass on him, do whatever it takes to land that second pick.

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