Examining Connor Murphy's trade value

The Chicago Blackhawks won’t return to the United Center until March 6 against the Vancouver Canucks. That’s a big date because the National Hockey League’s trade deadline is also that afternoon, meaning a handful of Blackhawks may have already played their final games at the Madhouse on Madison.

General manager Kyle Davidson has some veteran trade chips he could look to move before the deadline. Forwards Jason Dickinson, Ilya Mikheyev, and Nick Foligno are all on expiring contracts. As are defensemen Connor Murphy and Matt Grzelcyk. It’s Murphy who might be the most attractive of this group on the trade market, so let’s take a look at what his market value might be.

What Recent Trades Reveal

Players like Murphy are valuable this time of year. Teams looking to make a deep run in the Stanley Cup Playoffs are always looking to improve their depth on the back end. Murphy would be a great addition to a team that already has their top two defensive pairings locked in. He’s a veteran who can slide right into a team’s third pairing and give them a steady, physical presence on the ice and a great teammate in the locker room.

Insider Frank Seravalli reported before the Olympic break that the Blackhawks are hopeful to get a second-round pick for Murphy. I don’t think that is out of the question, especially if they are willing to retain part of his salary. His $4.4 million salary cap hit isn’t outrageous, but they could get more value by eating some of his remaining contract. The Blackhawks have two retention slots left, as they will be retaining $2.5 million of Seth Jones’ salary through the end of the 2029-30 season.

When you look at the defensemen who were traded at the deadline last year, you can get a good idea of what the return for Murphy will be. Luke Schenn is a similar player, and he fetched a second and fourth-round pick for the Pittsburgh Penguins, but he had another full year left on his contract. The Winnipeg Jets could be looking to move the veteran blueliner at this year’s deadline.

Carson Soucy, another physical veteran defender, netted the Vancouver Canucks a third-round pick from the New York Rangers last March. The Rangers got a third-rounder back when they flipped him to the New York Islanders a couple of weeks ago.

The New Jersey Devlis the Anaheim Ducks a second-round pick and prospect Herman Traff for blueliner Brian Dumoulin. This would be an excellent haul to get for Murphy, as Traff is a mid-level prospect with potential to develop. He was a third-round pick in 2024 and has 22 goals in Sweden’s second-tier league this season.

Based on last year’s market, Seravalli’s assessment of being hopeful for a second-round pick, but likely getting a third-round pick, seems logical and correct.

Patience Can Drive Up Value

The key to maximizing Murphy's return is patience. Davidson is smart enough to know that he does not need to take the final offer that comes along. He can wait it out all the way to the final minutes before the deadline to catch a team willing to overpay.

With so many teams still in contention for a playoff berth, the number of teams willing to trade away veterans is not big. Teams like the Nashville Predators and Columbus Blue Jackets, who have played themselves back into the playoff race, might become buyers instead of sellers. Will the Jets and Toronto Maple Leafs punt on this season and look to retool for the future? We will get those answers quickly after the NHL returns to action.

When you look at the defensemen who are on the market, Dougie Hamilton of the Devils and Justin Faulk of the St. Louis Blues are the top two available. However, they are both offensive-minded blueliners, so they shouldn’t affect the teams looking for a defender more like Murphy. However, teams that miss out on these top targets might circle back and call Davidson to make an offer.

The Jets have two big defenders they could trade if they decide to fold up the tent. In addition to Schenn, Logan Stanley could be an attractive target. Murphy is right up there with those two as the best stay-at-home, depth defensemen available.

Other defensemen who are rumored to be available are Andrew Peeke (Boston Bruins), Breaden Schneider (Rangers), Simon Benoit (Maple Leafs), and Mario Ferraro (San Jose Sharks). Murphy should be higher on the list of contenders than this group.

As more blueliners get moved, Murphy becomes more valuable. With fewer teams looking to sell off, a general manager might be pressured into giving Davidson something close to the Dumoulin return. Getting a third-round pick for Murphy is a good return, but squeezing out more at the deadline is not out of the question.