Blackhawks fans guide to the NHL Draft Lottery

Unfortunately, Chicago Blackhawks fans have become all too familiar with the NHL Draft Lottery over the past few years. Many are hopeful that this is the last time they have such good odds at winning the first-overall pick. At some point, the rebuild must have a turning point, and wins and losses need to start mattering. The front office, coaching staff, and players have all said this will be the last season in which they play meaningless games down the stretch. Adding another top prospect will help in making that prediction come true.

Draft Lottery Procedures & Odd

The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery will be held this Tuesday, May 5, at the NHL Network studio and will be broadcast live on ESPN. This is the second straight year the Draft Lottery will be held live, so fans and teams will learn the winners at the same time. As the four balls are drawn, the odds will change, and teams will be eliminated in real time.

A set of 14 numbered ping pong balls gives us 1,001 different four-number combinations. Those combinations are randomly distributed to the 16 teams that did not qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The worse your regular-season record was, the more combinations you get. There are two draws, one for the first overall pick and another for the second overall pick. This means the Blackhawks can only drop as far down to the fourth pick if they don’t win either drawing.

Per the rules, a team can only move up a maximum of 10 spots.  So, only the top 11 teams can win the first overall pick. If a team ranked 12-16 wins either drawing, they would move up 10 spots, and the lowest-seeded team remaining would slot into that pick. So, if the Columbus Blue Jackets win the second drawing, they will move up to fourth overall, and the Blackhawks will keep the second overall pick, assuming they haven’t won the first drawing.

The Blackhawks have a 13.5% chance to win the first-overall pick, 14.1% to remain second-overall, 30.7% to drop to third, and 41.7% to drop to fourth.

The odds for winning the first-overall pick are as follows:
Vancouver Canucks – 25.5%
Chicago Blackhawks – 13.5%
New York Rangers – 11.5%
Calgary Flames – 9.5%
Toronto Maple Leafs – 8.5%
Seattle Kraken – 7.5%
Winnipeg Jets – 6.5%
Florida Panthers – 6.0%
San Jose Sharks – 5.0%
Nashville Predators – 3.5%
St. Louis Blues – 3.0%

What’s At Stake?

Winning the first-overall pick this season likely means drafting Gavin McKenna out of Penn State. We’ve been hearing about him ever since he was granted exception status to play in the Western Hockey League at 15. He is a dynamic player with amazing vision and play-making ability. He would be an amazing addition to Connor Bedard for years to come.

If the Blackhawks stay at No. 2, Swedish forward Ivar Stenberg is the logical selection. The 18-year-old winger had a great season in the SHL, much like his fellow countryman Anton Frondell. He scored 11 goals and had 33 points in 43 games for Frolunda HC. He was also a big part of Sweden’s gold medal win at the World Junior Championship, scoring four goals and 10 points in seven games. Stenberg is a great skater, with high Hockey IQ and a solid 200-foot game.

If someone jumps ahead of the Blackhawks and they fall to third overall, general manager Kyle Davidson will have his pick of the top defenseman of the draft. There is plenty of debate about who that is. This is where the scouting department will really need to do its homework. Chase Reid (OHL), Keaton Verhoff (NCAA), Carson Carels (WHL), Alberts Smits (Liiga), and Xavier Villeneuve (QMJHL) are in the discussion, and each brings something different to the table.

In the worst-case scenario, where the Blackhawks select fourth overall, Davidson would have a myriad of choices. He could draft one of the defensemen, especially if the one at the top of their draft board is still available. Or, he could look at adding another forward. They’ve had a lot of eyes on Caleb Malhotra of the Brantford Bulldogs this season as they’ve kept tabs on Marek Vanacker and Parker Holmes. He’s been rocketing up the draft rankings with his stellar postseason, so he could be an option at four if he’s their best player available.

We’ll have plenty of time to debate who the Blackhawks should select once we learn where they will pick. Thankfully, we’ll know that part of the equation on Tuesday night.

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