Bowen Byram and the biggest gambles of the Kyle Davidson era

Bowen Byram spent July house-hunting in Chicago. A week after his wedding, he fit in a skate with Alex Vlasic and Artyom Levshunov between viewings. The contract was already done by then: six years, a $12.5 million cap hit from 2027-28 and, according to The Athletic's Scott Powers, a full no-movement clause. He hadn't played a game for Chicago.

Days earlier, Kyle Davidson had sent the fourth and 45th picks in the 2026 draft, plus Louis Crevier, to Buffalo for Byram and Jordan Greenway. Davidson's case for giving up a top-five pick: "I think when you're talking about a draft pick, the likelihood of that player if it's not maybe (Nos.) 1 or 2 in some years, playing in that year coming up right after that draft is fairly unlikely." Byram sounded like a man let out of a waiting room. "To be honest, I feel like I've just been preparing for hopefully an opportunity like this for a long time."

Byram arrives in Chi-Town

Byram isn't a superstar. Not yet. What he is is a very good 25-year-old coming off career highs of 11 goals and 42 points in 82 games, most of them beside Rasmus Dahlin on a blue line that won Buffalo its first Atlantic Division title and ended an NHL-record 14-season playoff drought. He wanted more. With Dahlin, Owen Power, and Mattias Samuelsson ahead of him, the No. 1 job in Buffalo was never going to be his, and he was a year from unrestricted free agency. "He wasn't gonna sign with us," Sabres GM Jarmo Kekalainen said.

The reaction was brutal. The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn called the extension "an unfathomable deal for a player of Bowen Byram's current stature." Daily Faceoff's trade grade said, "Either way, this is his Alamo." Then on August 28, Cale Makar signed for eight years at $20.4 million a season, and $12.5 million looked a lot less extreme overnight. It's still a big bet.

Chicago had its reasons. The Hawks had finished 29-39-14, traded Connor Murphy to Edmonton on March 2 and, reportedly, beaten the Sharks and Rangers to Byram. "He's going to own it," Davidson said. On September 21 at the United Center, Byram did exactly that as he scored a hat trick against an AHL-heavy Wild lineup and won it 29 seconds into overtime in the Blackhawks' second preseason game. But despite the win, online betting sites are still predicting a season of rebuilding at the United Center in 2026-27.

The latest *hockey odds ahead of the upcoming campaign make the Blackhawks a distant +450 outsider to reach the playoffs next season, the third-longest odds of anybody behind the Calgary Flames (+750) and the Vancouver Canucks (+800). So, it goes without saying that GM Davidson needs the Byram gamble to pay off and pay off big. But if his track record is anything to go by, that is by no means guaranteed.

Alex DeBrincat to Ottawa (2022)

Alex DeBrincat and Kirby Dach (more on him shortly) were both traded on draft night 2022. DeBrincat was 24, coming off 41 goals and a career-best 78 points, and only Patrick Kane had scored more for Chicago. Ottawa gave up the seventh and 39th picks plus a 2024 third-rounder, a return the Sun-Times called "underwhelming, given the burgeoning superstar had previously been considered the centerpiece of the Hawks' new core." Davidson's answer: the cap flexibility "all goes into the 'return.'"

DeBrincat's shooting percentage fell from 15.2 to 10.3; he wouldn't sign long-term, and a year later, he was dealt to Detroit in a trade built around Dominik Kubalik. Last season, he scored 41 goals and a career-best 85 points. Kevin Korchinski, the seventh pick, is no longer waiver-exempt and is still fighting for a regular spot. Chicago's real return was one nobody said out loud: a 26-49-7 season and the lottery win that brought Connor Bedard.

Brandon Hagel to Tampa Bay (2022)

At the March 2022 deadline, Brandon Hagel was 23, with 21 goals and 37 points in 55 games, shooting 22.3 percent on a deal paying $1.5 million a season. The Sun-Times wrote that Tampa Bay's offer blew Davidson "past the moon." Hagel and two fourth-round picks went out for Taylor Raddysh, Boris Katchouk, and two top-10-protected first-rounders. "I said a few weeks ago that we are rebuilding, and this is clearly the start of that," Davidson said.

Hagel went to the Stanley Cup Final that spring, then climbed from 64 points to 75 to 90, made the NHL Second All-Star Team, and won Olympic silver with Canada. Neither Raddysh nor Katchouk stuck in Chicago, and the picks became Oliver Moore and Sacha Boisvert. It's the clearest loss of Davidson's tenure, and it's the trade that kicked off the rebuild.

Seth Jones to Florida (2025)

"This has been almost four years of, you know, bottom of the league," Seth Jones said after a 2-1 loss to Utah on February 26, 2025. Three days later, he was a Panther. Chicago kept part of his $9.5 million cap hit and got a first-round pick and Spencer Knight, who was stuck behind Sergei Bobrovsky with a .907 save percentage that season. Florida won the Cup again, and Jones put up nine points in 23 playoff games. Knight, playing behind one of the league's leakiest defences, finished his first full Chicago season with 33.47 goals saved above expected. Being patient worked.

Kirby Dach to Montreal (2022)

Dach was a different story. The 2019 third overall pick had managed 26 points in 70 games when Montreal sent the 13th and 66th picks for him on draft night. In October 2023, he tore his ACL and MCL in a game against Chicago of all teams, and another knee surgery ended his 2024-25 season. Chicago used the picks on Frank Nazar and Gavin Hayes.

What to watch

On paper, Davidson has lost two of these four. He keeps making them anyway. His front office has one of the league's largest analytics departments, and the Sun-Times reported that he went ahead with Byram, knowing the models disagreed. The reasoning is simple: picks and patience only get a rebuild so far, and eventually, you have to pay for a player who's ready now.

That's what makes Byram different. DeBrincat, Hagel, Jones, and Dach were sent away to build something. Byram was brought in as the payoff. So, watch his minutes. Watch whether he shuts down other teams' top lines, not just whether he carries the puck, on a team that ranked 27th in expected goals against per 60 last season.

Does Chicago's blue line show the same gap that made Buffalo unwilling to make him its No. 1? Davidson has bet his tenure on the answer.

 *Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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