Men's Olympic quarterfinals preview

The men’s Olympic tournament is down to eight countries after Monday’s Qualification Playoff Round. Four teams advanced to Tuesday’s quarterfinals, as we are one step closer to the medal round. Let’s take a look at the four quarterfinal matchups and who has the best shot at moving on to the semifinals.

Slovakia v Germany, 5:10 am CT

Germany beat France on Monday to set up a meeting with Slovakia. Edmonton Oilers star came up big in the Germans’ first elimination game with a goal and two assists. The victory over France was just their second of the tournament, as they went 1-2-0 in group play. Tim Stutzle of the Ottawa Senators is tied with Macklin Celebrini for the tournament lead in goals with four. He and Draisaitl are tied for third in overall scoring with six points. Former Blackhawk Lukas Reichel has a goal, while Dominik Kahun has an assist.

Slovakia earned a bye into the round of eight by winning Group B over Finland and Sweden. They have been led offensively by two young guns. Former number one overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky has three goals and six points in three games. The Montreal Canadiens forward has 10 goals and 13 points in 10 career games at the Olympics. St. Louis Blues prospect Dalibor Dvorsky has chipped in with a pair of goals and four points.

Both teams have had solid goaltending, as Samuel Hlavaj and Philipp Grubauer have matching .934 save percentages (SV%). The key to victory could lie in which team can get depth scoring. Both sides have dynamic duos up top, so getting a big goal from down the lineup would be huge.

Prediction: Slovakia squeaks by 3-2 behind another big performance by Slafkovsky.

Canada v Czechia, 9:40 am CT

Czechia avoided a scare today by holding on to beat Denmark 3-2. A pair of former Blackhawks combined for their second goal, with Jan Ruuta setting up David Kampf. Colorado Avalanche forward Martin Necas has been terrific for the Czechs with three goals and seven points through four games. He tied the great Jaromir Jagr for the second-most points in a single Olympic tournament for Czechia. He needs one more point to tie Martin Straka, who had two goals and eight points in 2006.

Canada showed in group play why they were the number one seed heading to the tournament. They went a perfect 3-0-0 by outscoring their opponents 20-3, including a 5-0 win over Czechia. Connor McDavid leads all players with seven assists and nine points. Macklin Celebrini leads the tournament with four goals, and he’s one of six Canadians with more than one goal. Jordan Binnington has quieted his pre-tournament detractors by allowing only two goals on 38 shots in his two starts.

Before the games started, I wrote that Czechia would be a tough out in the elimination round, but they would need a Herculean effort to reach the semifinals. Canada will have Brad Marchand available, and injured defenseman Josh Morrissey could also return to the lineup. Necas joked about the rematch after their win over Denmark.

“We let them win the first one because we knew we weren’t going to win two in a row against Canada.”

Prediction: Czechia doesn’t have the horses or goaltending to pull off an upset. Canada pulls away late and wins 5-2.

Finland v Switzerland, 11:10 am CT

The Swiss advanced to the quarterfinals by beating Italy 3-0 in their Playoff Qualification game. Former Blackhawk Philipp Kurashev scored the only goal they needed before Nashville Predators defenseman Roman Josi and New Jersey Devils captain Nico Hischier added goals. Switzerland has been getting a lot of offensive production from its back end as its defensemen have combined for four goals and 12 points. Goaltender Leonardo Genoni has two shutouts in the tournament and will be a big factor in pulling off any upsets going forward.

Finland got the “wild card” bye for being the top second-place in group play. They won back-to-back games after losing their tournament opener to Slovakia. They have a balanced offensive attack with 11 different players scoring in group play. Sebastian Aho, Joel Armia, Kaapo Kakko, and Mikael Granlund have all scored two goals. Armia, Kakko, Miko Rantanen, and Arturri Lehkonen lead the Fins with four points. Juuse Saros has been the only goaltender of record for Finland. The Predators’ netminder has a 1.34 GAA, .945 SV%, and a shutout in his three games.

This should be a low-scoring affair. Both teams play solid defense and have excellent goaltending. Finland has allowed only five goals, with four of those coming from Slovakia. Switzerland has given up eight goals in its four games. Scoring chances will be at a premium, so this one could be decided by a big special teams goal. The Swiss penalty kill has been great, allowing only one power-play goal in 13 chances.

Prediction: Switzerland pulls off the upset in a 2-1 overtime win, with Timo Meier being the hero.

United States v Sweden, 2:10 pm CT

One of the pre-tournament favorites will be out in the round of eight! Sweden beat Latvia 4-1 to set up their quarterfinal date with Team USA. The Swedes have been a strange team in Milan. They have looked disinterested and undisciplined at times. Head coach Sam Hallam has made some questionable lineup decisions, like barely playing Filip Forsberg in the preliminary round and starting goaltender Jacob Marstrom against Latvia. Despite all of that, they are still one of the most talented rosters remaining in the field. If they play up to their abilities, they can beat any team.

Team USA got off to a sluggish start, but really started coming into its own by the end of the preliminary round. They outscored their opponents 16-5 in their three wins. Auston Matthews leads the Americans with three goals and five points. He’s been playing more in between the dots than he’s used to, and it’s been a major factor in the team’s success. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has allowed just two goals and 42 shots and will be leaned on in the elimination rounds.

Sweden will need to stay out of the penalty box if it wants to beat the United States. They have 36 penalty minutes in four games, but have only allowed one power-play goal. But they haven’t faced a power-play unit like Team USA. They have scored three goals in their seven opportunities and can attack you from every angle. Another slow start for Team USA could lead to a quick exit, so they need to be sharp from the opening draw. They will need regular-season Hellebuyck from here on out to reach their ultimate goal of gold.

Prediction: Team USA will flex their muscle in a 4-1 win with two power-play goals.