Will the Blackhawks draft for need or for the best available in June?

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It's a debate as old as time itself... Or at least as old as the first NHL draft in 1963. The question is, "What does one do when the time rolls around to select a prospect?" in the modern NHL, there are really two prevailing philosophies as I have stated. In this article I will explain those different philosophies and give recent examples where the Blackhawks employed each one.

Drafting for Need

The idea behind "drafting for need" is very simple and rooted in sound logic. To draft for need is to assess the current roster, project down the road which players will be present long term, and then draft at whichever position is the weakest.

As an example, lets imagine that you are an NHL general manager. (Quick! take that money and run! RUN!) Ok seriously though, let's imagine that you have a very strong defensive core, a good goaltender who is on a long term deal and solid centers and wingers. However, you know that your first line left winger is seeking a long term deal at a price you can't stomach, and you will have to let him walk in free agency. This will create a hole on the left wing which will need to be filled in the coming years.

Thus, to draft for need you would draft the best available left winger when it comes to your pick. You essentially draft with the intention of filling a vacant spot on your roster.

The Blackhawks employed this strategy in relatively recent drafts, when they selected Kirby Dach with the intention of bolstering their Center depth and replacing Jonathan Toews when he eventually retired. They also drafted for need when they selected Adam Boqvist in 2018 to supplement a rapidly aging defensive core.

In hindsight the Hawks may have missed out on some excellent players due to their strategy of drafting for need, although both picks made sense at the time.

Drafting best player available

The other notable philosophy in drafting is to simply take the best available prospect regardless of position. This doesn't necessarily mean that you never end up filling an immediate need, as the best available player may also just so happen to play the position that you need most.

Let's again explore that hypothetical scenario where you, the reader, are an NHL general manager in that same scenario from earlier. Even though your team will badly need a left winger to fill the void left by that departing unrestricted free agent, you may choose to take the best player available instead. Perhaps there is a defenseman available that prior to the draft you had locked in as a top 10 pick and he fell all the way to the 20s where you are drafting. To draft by "best player available," you clearly take that player even though you don't presently need a defenseman.

The Blackhawks under Kyle Davidson have routinely drafted by the philosophy of "best player available." Davidson said so himself in his end of season press conference when he said, "The Best players are ranked accordingly, and (we are) not bumping a guy up the list because he plays a certain position." You can see Kyle's full comments on the Chicago Blackhawks official YouTube page, and I highly recommend it!

The Blackhawks employed this strategy when they selected Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, and Oliver Moore. The only one you could argue was an example of drafting to fill a need, was when they selected Kevin Korchinski seventh overall in 2022. In the case of Bedard, it also just so happened that he filled a glaring hole on this team. That being a superstar forward that can drive the offense.

Going back in time to 2019, the Blackhawks likely would have taken Bowen Byram over Kirby Dach had they been adhering to the "best player available" philosophy. Kirby Dach is a good player and he filled a roll for while with the Blackhawks, but in retrospect had they taken Byram they would have walked away with the better player, and a core piece of their defense for years to come.

Which philosophy is preferable? And which will the Blackhawks use in the coming draft?

The prevailing thought these days seems to be that drafting the best player available is the correct decision. Kyle Davidson has made it clear that he is an adherent to this philosophy and there is no reason to believe that he will stray from it in the 2024 draft.

The key is to not be so strict in your adherence to either philosophy that you fail to react properly to what is happening on the draft floor. For instance, if you are drafting by strictly by position you may miss out on the clear cut better player simply because you don't "need" his position.

Conversely, if you are strictly drafting best player available, you still need to be aware of how many prospects you already have at that position in your system. If the best player available is a center, but you have picked 11 centers in the last three drafts that all project to play in the NHL, you may want to draft a different position.

So now that we know that the Blackhawks officially own the 2nd overall pick in the 2024 draft, I would expect Kyle Davidson to simply select the player that he thinks is the 2nd best in the class behind Macklin Celebrini. This would be consistent with his philosophy of drafting the best player available, and no matter who is selected, you can be certain that the Blackhawks will be walking away with an excellent addition to their prospect pool.

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Drafting for Need

Drafting best player available

Which philosophy is preferable? And which will the Blackhawks use in the coming draft?

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