Blackhawks' Final 2 Games and How They Will Effect Their Draft Odds
By Kyle Graden
With game #81 (in Hossa we trust) on the docket tonight, the Blackhawks are in a tight 3 team race to finish with the worst record this season. As it stands the Blackhawks are currently in last place in terms of point percentage (.350), however they are tied with 56 points with Columbus.
The Blackhawks and Ducks have only 2 games remaining and the Blue Jackets have 3 still to play. Anaheim has 58 points with their season also wrapping up on Thursday like Chicago (against Philadelphia).
Here are the remaining schedules:
Anaheim (58 points): Tonight hosting the Canucks, Thursday hosting the Kings
Columbus (56 points): Tonight at the Flyers, Thursday hosting the Penguins, Friday against Buffalo
Chicago (56 points): Tonight in Pittsburgh, Thursday hosting the Flyers (possible Toews' sendoff)
Anyway you look at this you'll notice the Flyers as possible road block for the Blackhawks. They are a team that likely won't be playing for much (either) and thusly could put worth a very beatable effort. Pittsburgh on the other hand is fighting for their playoff lives and I believe are entering tonight in must-win mode.
Not in our favor is the tie-breaker in case there is a two or three team tie in terms of points. As it stands the Blackhawks have won 25 games to Columbus' 24 and Anaheims' 23. That would put us behind them in terms of odds if we were tied.
Scenario 1: All 3 teams do not gain another point, the Blackhawks take in the second best odds which are 27.9% at a top 2 pick and 72.1% odds the pick lands 3rd or 4th.
Scenario 2: The Blackhawks gain at least 2 more points while the other teams do not and we are awarded the 3rd best odds which are 23% chance at a top 2 pick and 69.5% chance the pick is 4th or 5th (just 7.4% at 3rd).
Scenario 3: The Blue Jackets gain at least 1 more point while the Blackhawks gain 0 and we are awarded with the best odds which are 44.3% at a top 2 pick and a 55.7% chance it's 3rd.
So are we routing for a win in the final 2 games? Well, no not really... but again it is all just luck.
Note: Yes, I am aware the Sharks still are in this race as the worst team however it is highly unlikely the Hawks and Blue Jackets win out and the Sharks do not gain another point (Sharks hold the fewest wins tiebreaker over all teams).