Blackhawks will turn their fortunes around if they improve these 4 advanced stats

The Chicago Blackhawks didn’t have a single decent advanced statistic last season, or at least that was what I concluded when conducting research for this article. If there’s one team that’s starting from scratch in 2024-25 from a statistical standpoint, it’s the Hawks, even if they luckily made enough key additions in July to play at least somewhat entertaining hockey. 

But with that organically comes higher expectations, and the four advanced team statistics shared below will make or break the Hawks. Should they improve in all four of them, expect a better team and perhaps even a few stints throughout the season that could motivate the fanbase to talk playoffs. 

That said, if they don’t improve, they’re in for another long season despite the way they basically revamped everything. So, let’s explore what they need to fix early this season for a respectable campaign to commence, starting with a couple of 5-on-5 statistics. 

actual Goals For at 5-on-5

While the Blackhawks were among the worst in the NHL in expected goals for (143.8), their actual goals for (aGA) were even worse, sitting at just 118. As for the other 31 teams, the average sat at 166, putting the Hawks at a minus-48 goal differential. 

This shouldn’t occur in 2024-25, thanks to growth from Connor Bedard and Philipp Kurashev, plus the gritty Tyler Bertuzzi and the reliable Teuvo Teravainen arriving. Ideally, we’ll see the Hawks at least hover around average, and if the four players mentioned above all build fast chemistry, maybe they will rise above average. 

High-Danger Chances For at 5-on-5

The Blackhawks managed just 503 high-danger chances for in 2023-24 despite the rest of the league averaging 627. Conduct some simple math, and this number stands at a dangerously low minus-124 for the year, or roughly 1.5 fewer per game. 

That neither can nor should happen in 2024-25, and as I’ve mentioned a few times already, playing that bleak a game when in puck possession won’t result in wins for this improved team. 

Scoring Chances For

Sticking with puck possession, the Hawks also struggled in overall scoring chances for at 5-on-5, reaching the minute number of 1,483, or just 18 per game. The rest of the NHL averaged 1,788, or 21.8 per contest, an eye-popping 3.8 more than what Chicago managed. 

The good news is, should the Hawks improve this one statistic, it should also trickle down to high-danger chances for and actual goals for, or at least expected goals for. So, if you see this number increase early in the season, chances are, you’ll see a far more productive unit when they’re in the offensive zone. 

Scoring Chances Against

The Hawks were also awful when they didn’t have the puck, and I could have put several poor statistics in this category. In the end, I rolled with scoring chances against, a number that sat at 2,074, or 25.29 per game. 

If you take the average number of 21.8 per contest shown in the previous section, which is also the average number of scoring chances for against across the NHL landscape, the Hawks allowed roughly 3.5 more per game across 82 outings. Interestingly, goaltender Petr Mrazek didn’t have such a bad season, so it makes you wonder how even an average netminder would have fared with this team if they were in Mrazek’s position.

(Statistics powered by Hockey-Reference)