Yesterday I posted a question:
"Half way through the season, based on everything we've heard from the players and management, do you think Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be traded by March 3rd?" I received a whopping 1,526 votes (Thank You!).
Let's start with what you think was least likely to happen: 15% that just Patrick Kane will be traded by the deadline. I agree that this is the least likely scenario. If you add in the percentage of "both of them" it is actually 49% (according to you) that Patrick Kane will be traded by the deadline. Put me squarely in the camp that he will not be moved for what it's worth.
Next up at 21% is just Jonathan Toews gets moved. If you add in the "both of them" it's over 50% at 55% likely hood he is dealt. At 34, with a step slower pace and not the production we are used to seeing, Toews is still a great asset from a leadership, faceoff, and experience standpoint.
Coming in at 30% is that neither will be traded. I tend to see this as a very real option as both carry 10.5 million dollar contracts (in final year) and those, for contenders, are hard to fit under a hard cap. I'm sure Kyle Davidson is working every angle he can to see how to ease this if they decide to waive their no movement clauses for new scenery.
After 1,526 votes, 34% of you said that both players will be traded. I find this very hard to believe. That's moving 21 million, with two players with full NMC, and with combined over 30 years of history with the Blackhawks. As far as I know, a $10 million plus deal has never been moved. Even with the PK Subban trade it was for another large contract. IF both players decide they want to move on before March 3rd it would be one of the most complicated set of deals ever completed for a team.
To recap: 55% Toews gets dealt, 49% Kane gets dealt, 34% both get dealt, 30% neither get dealt
I tend to lean towards if one of them moves on this season it would be Jonathan Toews (I think Colorado, Winnipeg, Toronto and Vegas are options) and that the more I think about the complexity of these deals that perhaps both are Blackhawks on March 4th.