What are the Blackhawks Odds at Landing a Superstar?

Edmonton Oilers v Chicago Blackhawks
Edmonton Oilers v Chicago Blackhawks / Patrick McDermott/GettyImages
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At the present, the Chicago Blackhawks are the 31st worse team in the NHL. Depending on how you view the season this may actually be a good thing. However, it's still all up to chance. Let's look at what the lottery odds look like.

According to Tankathon (www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds) the current lottery odds are summed up best like this:

1. Only the Bottom 11 Teams have a Chance at #1

2. Unlike Years Prior, the Worst Team will Remain in the Top 3

3. The Bottom 3 Teams have a 50.5% Chance at #1

The team with the worst record will guarantee themselves a top 3 pick and have a 25.5% chance at the top selection. The second worse (Blackhawks current position) will not drop past 4th and have a 27.9% chance at a top 2 pick.

The scary truth is that even if the Blackhawks finish in the bottom 2-3 teams, their odds are still way more likely to pick 3rd-5th than they are in the top 2. Look, it's pretty much settled that Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli will go 1-2. However, look no further than when the Avalanche finished last by a mile and dropped all the way to 4th (rule this year is 3rd)..... Their pick was Cale Makar.

If the Blackhawks finish in the bottom 2 teams it is way more likely they draft 3rd or 4th. If they finish 32nd they have a 44.3% chance at 1 or 2 and a 55.7% chance at 3rd. If they finish 31st they ONLY have a 27.9% at 1-2 and a 72.1% chance it will be at 3-4.

Make no mistake about it, by the trade deadline their will be teams selling off players cheaper than most years. This is because the odds at a top 3 pick have never been more valuable with 3 to 5 game changing prospects available. The way the prospects' seasons have been going it'd now put C Will Smith as the #5 selection behind Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, and Carlsson.

This year's lottery odds also has the bottom 9 teams ALL with over 10% chance at the top 2 selections. If you run the Sim Lottery at www.tankathon.com you will commonly see a wide array of teams in the bottom 9 teams come all the way up into the top 2.

Is it good that the Blackhawks are bad? I suppose so, for the prize may take off years on the rebuild. However, being bad is no guarantee the Blackhawks will receive a top 2 selection. If you ask Colorado , sometimes the odds are are in your favor.... even when they are not.

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