What history says about Connor Bedard's Stanley Cup chances

Chicago Blackhawks star Connor Bedard is entering his fourth NHL season and has yet to experience playoff hockey. Although it has been only 11 years since the franchise last hoisted the Stanley Cup, the dynasty that delivered three championships in five seasons is now firmly in the rearview mirror. With stars like Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith, and Jonathan Toews gone, the responsibility of leading Chicago back to contention now rests largely on Bedard's shoulders.

As the first overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, expectations have always been enormous. But history shows that even the game's most highly touted prospects don't have an easy path to the Stanley Cup. Since the NHL Draft began in 1963, only 19 of 64 first-overall picks have ever won a championship,  a success rate of just 29.7%. Even more surprising, those 19 players waited an average of 8.1 seasons before finally lifting hockey's ultimate prize.

For Bedard, history suggests patience may be as important as talent.

Only 19 first overall picks have won the Stanley Cup

In 2010, Patrick Kane scored an overtime goal to earn the Blackhawks’ first Stanley Cup win since 1961, achieving the feat in just his third NHL season. When that puck found the back of the net, he was the only player on the planet who knew where it was and celebrated, becoming the third-fastest first overall pick to win the Stanley Cup. He followed five-time winners Guy Lafleur and Rejean Houle, who won it all in just their second seasons.

Regarding his place in history, Kane reached the mountaintop much faster than many Hall of Fame first overall picks, including several who waited more than a decade to finally win the Stanley Cup.

The list shows just how different the journey can be. Some first overall picks won almost immediately, while Ovechkin and Hall waited until much later in their careers.

Out of the 45 first overall picks to never win the Stanley Cup, only six of them earned a plaque at the Hockey Hall of Fame: Joe Thornton, Eric Lindros, Mats Sundin, Pierre Turgeon, Dale Hawerchuk, and Gilbert Perreault. Moreover, only Sundin and Turgeon never skated in the Stanley Cup Final; while Perreault lost in 1975, Lindros in 1997, Hawerchuk in 2010, and Thornton in 2016.

Most first overall picks never win the Stanley Cup

In 2026, there are currently 22 active first overall picks in the league, including Bedard. Out of those, 14 have never had a chance to hoist the Stanley Cup, including Gavin McKenna (2026), Matthew Schaefer (2025), Macklin Celebrini (2024), Bedard (2023), Juraj Slafkovsky (2022), Owen Power (2021), Alexis Lafreniere (2020), Jack Hughes (2019), Rasmus Dahlin (2018), Nico Hischier (2017), Auston Matthews (2016), Connor McDavid (2015), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2011), and John Tavares (2009). Out of those players, only McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins have skated in the Final, losing in 2024 and 2025.

Considering none of those active players are eligible for the Hockey Hall of Fame, Bedard will hope to avoid becoming one of the retired first overall picks who finished their careers without either a Stanley Cup or a place in the Hockey Hall of Fame. Some of the big names to miss on both accounts include Wendel Clark, Owen Nolan, Roman Hamrlik, Rick DiPietro, and Ilya Kovalchuk.

Being selected first overall in the NHL Draft is one of hockey's greatest individual honors, but combining that distinction with a Stanley Cup championship is far rarer than many would expect. Bedard is still early in his career and, barring a dramatic turnaround, likely a few seasons away from seriously contending for the Stanley Cup. If he eventually gets there, he'll join an exclusive group that includes some of the greatest first overall picks in NHL history.

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