What if Chicago Blackhawks hadn’t won 2007 NHL Draft Lottery?

The Chicago Blackhawks won the 2007 NHL Draft Lottery, much to the surprise of fans and observers. While their win wasn’t quite as surprising as the New York Islanders this past season, it caused quite the stir, nonetheless.

So, it’s an interesting exercise to imagine a parallel dimension in which the Blackhawks hadn’t won the 2007 NHL Draft Lottery. Instead, we’ll explore what would have happened and, most importantly, speculate how that could have changed the outcome of history.

Let’s start with 2006. That season, the Blackhawks drafted third overall and took a fella by the name of Jonathan Toews. As such, the Blackhawks headed into the 2007 draft with Toews firmly in tow.

Toews didn’t play in 2006-2007. He would make his NHL debut the following year. Thus, Toews had no bearing in what was another lost season for the Blackhawks. They finished last in the Central Division, which had five teams at the time, racking up 71 points.

The sour finish wasn’t enough for last overall. That dubious distinction went to the Philadelphia Flyers. That meant the Flyers entered the 2007 NHL Draft Lottery with the best odds to land the first-overall selection, at 25%.

Meanwhile, the Blackhawks had the fifth-best odds, at 8.1%. At the Draft Lottery, the Blackhawks stunned the NHL by landing the top pick. The Flyers picked second, and the Phoenix Coyotes, who had the second-best odds at the top pick, finished third.

As history played out, the Blackhawks took Patrick Kane first overall. The move paired with him, Toews, and a strong supporting cast, leading to three Stanley Cups in the 2010s.

But what if the Blackhawks hadn’t won the 2007 NHL Draft Lottery? What if the odds had played out as prescribed and the Flyers landed the top overall pick? Let’s say the Blackhawks had picked fifth as per the odds? Who would that have yielded for Chicago?

Most importantly, would the Blackhawks have won their Cups anyway?

Blackhawks wouldn’t have won their Cups without Kane

Let’s be upfront about this. The Blackhawks would not have won their Stanley Cups without Patrick Kane. The Blackhawks would have had their franchise player in Jonathan Toews, but he would have lacked the supporting cast to win a championship.

The Blackhawks would have been forced to sign free agents or trade for another superstar player to complement Toews.

In this thought experiment, the Flyers, who took James van Riemsdyk in real life, would have picked Kane first overall. The Blackhawks, with the fifth pick, would have selected someone like Karl Alzner or Sam Gagner, who went fifth and sixth in the actual draft selection.

That’s a radically different outcome.

There’s one other wrinkle in this thought experiment. Kane wasn’t the top-ranked prospect at the time. When doing my research for this experiment, I came across NHL Central Scouting rankings leading up to the 2007 draft.

Kye Turris was ranked the top North American skater, while Kane was second. Mikael Backlund was the top European skater. Van Riemsdyk was ranked third.

So, let’s suppose that the Blackhawks, with the first-overall pick, had taken Turris and not Kane with the selection?

That would have been another franchise-altering wrinkle. Turris, in short, never really panned out. He played in 776 NHL games. He scored 168 goals and 424 points. Not a bad career, but not one becoming of a third-overall pick.

Once again, it’s safe to say the Blackhawks would not have won their Cups with Turris instead of Kane. We could speculate that Turris would have blossomed into an NHL legend in Chicago as opposed to languishing in Phoenix and Ottawa.

Perhaps in that parallel universe, Kyle Turris would have been the legend that delivered the three Cups alongside Toews, while Patrick Kane would have washed out in Philadelphia or Phoenix.

If anyone has a time machine, do let us know so we can run this experiment and see the outcome.

(Information from Wikipedia and Hockey DB)