What the Leo Carlsson offer sheet means for Connor Bedard and the Blackhawks

In an NHL offseason that has already been filled with fireworks, Philadelphia Flyers general manager Daniel Briere set off the latest pyrotechnics Friday afternoon when he tendered an offer sheet to Anaheim Ducks superstar Leo Carlsson worth $90 million across the next five years. 

We will find out at some point over the next seven days, but there is a very real chance that Carlsson, 21, will swap one shade of orange for another and will become the number-one center in the City of Brotherly Love. There are a number of consequences that will come as a result of this offer sheet, including the fact that it guarantees Carlsson will become the highest-paid player in the NHL on a yearly basis thanks to his new deal’s $18 million average annual value. 

This contract could put Anaheim in a bind as they negotiate new contracts with other burgeoning stars (Cutter Gauthier) and figure out how to round out their weak defense corps for next season. It also means that Philadelphia could be surrendering its next four first-round picks and trusting that Carlsson will be enough to make them real contenders in the East.

But, most importantly for Blackhawks fans, this offer sheet will directly impact Connor Bedard’s next contract and general manager Kyle Davidson’s future salary cap plans.

Breaking Down What Carlsson's Offer Sheet Means for the Blackhawks

Bedard and Carlsson’s second contracts were always going to be compared to each other. Both are the faces of their franchises, both are number-one centers, and they were picked first and second overall, respectively, in the 2023 NHL Draft.

Up to this point in his career, Bedard has tallied 75 goals and 203 points in 219 games. Meanwhile, Carlsson has recorded 61 goals and 141 points in 201 career contests. Given the fact that Bedard has faced significantly more pressure as the face of an Original Six franchise, has received much less offensive support than Carlsson (Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke, and Troy Terry all play key roles in Anaheim’s attack), and has drastically out-produced Carlsson, he is more than justified in believing he deserves more than Carlsson. The Blackhawks – and any other team, for that matter – can’t dispute that. 

However, does that mean Bedard will command more than $18 million a year? Not necessarily. Every indication from Bedard’s camp and the Blackhawks front office suggests that Bedard is committed to Chicago and what the team is building. Despite what rival fan bases may suggest, Bedard appears to be happy in the Windy City and is more than prepared to inevitably take on the captaincy and lead the franchise back to contention. Carlsson’s gargantuan new AAV, though, will most likely bump up Bedard’s asking price by a million dollars or two per year.

Is that an immediate problem for the Blackhawks? Once again, not necessarily. The Blackhawks are flush with over $29 million in cap room, and Bedard’s is the only major contract left to sign this summer. But as the team’s best player, Bedard’s AAV will dictate the rest of Chicago’s core pieces’ asking prices. The lower your top player’s salary, the less the rest of your players demand, generally. So, as of this moment, if Bedard signs for a couple of million more than his original asking price, it’s not a big deal. 

But when it comes time to re-sign Anton Frondell, Artyom Levshunov, Sam Rinzel, among others, and they begin asking for a bit more than they would have had Bedard signed for less, Davidson could run into some cap management issues. Ideally, when the rest of the core re-signs, the Blackhawks will be in or entering their contention window and will be closer to the salary cap limit. Look at division rivals such as Colorado, Dallas, and Minnesota – every dollar matters when you are going for a Stanley Cup. So, a few extra million now is insignificant, but three years down the line, it begins to add up.

Finally, the worst-case scenario for the Blackhawks is that this Carlsson offer sheet emboldens another franchise to try to poach Bedard this summer. What if a team offers Bedard a five-year deal worth $20 million a year for his services? Unlikely, yes, but as we have already seen in this new rising salary cap world, almost nothing feels impossible. $100 million dollars and a chance to hit unrestricted free agency at his 26-year-old prime would be remarkably difficult for Bedard to turn down, no matter how committed he appears to the Blackhawks.

Will this happen? Probably not. But the Carlsson offer sheet undoubtedly turns up the pressure on Davidson to pay his star and to do it quickly. If not, this rebuild could be all for naught.

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