Where Connor Bedard ranks among recent No. 1 picks in point production

On Wednesday, the Chicago Blackhawks announced that Connor Bedard had shoulder surgery and would need four months to recover. Considering it’s already the second week in July, he’ll miss the start of the 2026-27 season, which begins in early October, but never say never regarding Bedard, who came back quickly after a broken jaw.

Having the soon-to-be 21-year-old in the Chicago lineup is vital to their overall success, whether it’s making a push in the ultra-competitive Central Division or chasing down a Western Conference wildcard spot. If Bedard misses significant time at the beginning of the season, the Blackhawks will be hard-pressed to replace his production and start the campaign on a positive note.

In only three seasons, Bedard’s 203 points in 219 games rank 48th overall in the NHL, while his 0.93 points-per-game average ranks 55th. When looking at his place among his teammates in Chicago, Bedard is the leader by a country mile, as he’s the only skater with more than 125 points, and his points-per-game average is more than .30 ahead of the next name on the list.

In addition, Bedard is one of the top-scoring first overall picks of the last decade, trailing only Macklin Celebrini (San Jose), Auston Matthews (Toronto), and Jack Hughes (New Jersey) in points per game.

Of course, a handful of recent first overall picks are defensemen. Still, if Bedard continues on a point-per-game pace, or better, possibly even surpassing 80 points in 2026-27, he could catch Alexis Lafreniere and be the fifth-best first overall scorer since the 2016 Draft.

Here’s a breakdown of recent first-round picks' points-per-game averages:

Owen Power (2021 - Buffalo Sabres)

Defenseman - 0.43 (140 points in 323 games)

Alexis Lafrenière (2020 - New York Rangers)

Left Wing - 0.54 (250 points in 462 games)

Juraj Slafkovsky (2022 - Montreal Canadiens)

Left Wing - 0.65 (184 points in 282 games)

Matthew Schaeder (2025 - New York Islanders)

Defenseman - 0.71 (54 points in 82 games)

Rasmus Dahlin (2018 - Buffalo Sabres)

Defenseman - 0.74 (434 points in 586 games)

Nico Hischier (2017 - New Jersey Devils)

Center - 0.80 (488 points in 609 games)

Connor Bedard (2023 - Chicago Blackhawks)

Center - 0.92 (209 points in 219 games)

Jack Hughes (2019 - New Jersey Devils)

Center - 0.99 (428 points in 429 games)

Auston Matthews (2016 - Toronto Maple Leafs)

Center - 1.13 (780 points in 689 games)

Macklin Celebrini (2024 - San Jose Sharks)

Center - 1.17 (178 points in 152 games)

Except for a couple of names on the list, most of the teams above win and lose depending on the production of their top players, like Bedard, Celebrini, Matthews, Hughes, and Dahlin, to name a few.

As long as Bedard can rest and recover from this latest injury setback, there's a chance he won't miss much time and will continue to put the Blackhawks on his back, carrying the franchise into another championship era.

After scoring 30 goals for the first time in 2026-27, he produced at a 1.08 points-per-game rate, continuing to raise the bar and expectations for himself and the club.

Like so many other teams across the NHL, the upcoming campaign will be an important one in Chicago, with fans hoping for a jump up the standings and to avoid the annual Draft Lottery. Ultimately, their success is closely tied to Bedard’s health and his ability to produce around a point per game.

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