Blackhawks could use division rivals’ extension as a comp for Bedard

Much of the narrative surrounding the Chicago Blackhawks this season has been Connor Bedard’s next contract. Bedard took a calculated risk this past offseason. The Hawks pushed to extend Bedard during the summer, but the former first-overall pick balked at that possibility.

He bet on himself, and boy, did he get that bet right. Bedard is on fire to start the season. His overall play has evolved, earning him a letter on his jersey. That’s what the Blackhawks hoped they would get from Bedard at this point. But the problem has taken the club down an undesired path.

Signing Bedard during the offseason would have enabled the Blackhawks to keep costs down. But now, Bedard’s stock has risen significantly. That situation opens up a can of worms GM Kyle Davidson will need to figure out sooner rather than later.

One of the tools GMs use to negotiate contracts is comparables. They look at other players of similar age, position, production, and service time. Those inputs help GMs say, “This guy got X amount, so that’s what we’re thinking.”

The closest comparable in this case is Utah Mammoth center Logan Cooley. Cooley was the third-overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft. He’s put up very similar numbers to Bedard’s, despite falling short this season.

Still, Cooley’s trajectory prompted the Mammoth to sign Cooley to an eight-year, $80 million deal. The $10 million AAV is a high one, but a number the Mammoth feel will look cheap as the salary cap increases.

Using Cooley as a comparable, is Bedard worth $10 million AAV? Not by a mile. In November 26 piece in the The Athletic, Bedard is estimated to be worth over $16 million AAV.

That number is bonkers. Leon Draisaitl, a consecrated superstar (sans Stanley Cup) got $14 million. Kirilli Kaprizov got $17 million, with the Wild hoping the best is yet to come.

So, do the Blackhawks back up the Brinks truck and play Bedard $15 or $16 million over an eight-year deal? Davidson would rather not. Chicago has numerous young players due for raises in the coming years. That’s why having cost certainty is a crucial component in this discussion. 

PuckPedia projects the Blackhawks will have over $53 million in cap space next season. That may sound like a mind-shocking number, but doling out big contracts willy-nilly can quickly erode that magical cap space. 

That’s why the Blackhawks will be careful to keep Bedard’s cap hit as low as possible. Perhaps Chicago and Bedard’s camp settle on a short-term deal. A short-term contract would help keep costs manageable, meanwhile the cap continues to rise. 

If Bedard can string multiple great seasons, you would have to think $16 million may no longer seem like a crazy idea. Perhaps a two or three-year deal around $9 to $10 million AAV would kick the can down the road. 

Perhaps this discussion will change significantly in 2028 when the Blackhawks have a projected $89 million in cap space. Bedard bet on himself once. So, it wouldn’t be ludicrous to think he can take a lower payday now and load up for a massive one in two or three years.